Super Thursday By-elections Preview

Two parliamentary by-elections on one day is a treat for political punters and, as usual, Smarkets has the widest range of markets available.

First up, Wakefield. This should be an easy Labour gain. Two polls have been conducted, putting Labour 20 and 23 points ahead of the Tories. Labour were very strong favourites even before these were published and are now rated as 98% favourites to take the seat. Constituency by-election polls haven't always been accurate in the recent past with misses in Richmond Park and Batley & Spen. I suppose it's possible that the Tories will outperform these polls, with partygate and no-confidence stories fading and maybe the recent immigration issues working in their favour with a section of the electorate. Still, these polls are going to have to be very wrong for them to even get close. However, one election forecaster has a model which puts the Conservatives ahead (doesn't account for the constituency polls).