Local by-election preview: Peacehaven West

Let's head to the south coast and a vacant seat on Lewes District Council. The Peacehaven West ward is about six miles east of Brighton and up for grabs after one of the sitting Conservative councillors stepped down in what appear to be non-controversial circumstances.

An intriguing four runner race with the opening implied win chances at Smarkets looking like this:

The last time this ward was fought was at the 2019 local elections:

• 329 Cons elected
• 323 Cons elected
• 270 Lyn Mills (Ind)
• 233 UKIP
• 222 Green
• 209 Lib Dem
• 164 Green
• 152 Robbie Robertson (Ind)

So, a lot of UKIP and independent votes up for grabs this time. Lyn Mills seems to have been associated with the local residents grouping and Robbie Robertson is a former Tory councillor. So, those candidates not standing this time would, on balance, probably be expected help the Tories out. The fact that there is a Labour candidate on the ballot is another plus point for the Conservatives, further splitting any anti-Tory vote.

I haven't been able to find a lot of evidence on social media that the Greens or Lib Dems are running a particularly active campaign; I guess resources would be an issue for all parties given the nationwide local elections which took place last week. Certainly the Tories and Labour seem to have made some efforts here, which helps explain why they start off as the front two in the market.

It wouldn't be at all surprising if the Tories suffered a loss of vote share but still managed to win the seat on Thursday.