Brasted, Chevening & Sundridge by-election

We're heading to Sevenoaks District Council for this week's featured local by-election, in the ward of Brasted, Chevening & Sundridge.

The vacancy here has arisen because the outgoing councillor, Anna Firth, got selected as the Tory candidate for the Westminster seat of Southend West which she subsequently won very easily. That by-election was caused by the murder of Sir David Amess and was something of a walkover given that none of the other main parties fielded a candidate.

The ward is just to the west of the town of Sevenoaks, is bisected by the M25 and is probably best known for including Chevening House, the grace and favour mansion often used by the Foreign Secretary, although Liz Truss now appears to be sharing the keys with her predecessor Dominic Raab.

The ward has been solidly Tory for most of it's recent history but the Liberal Democrats must fancy their chances of a gain this time around. The last contest here was another by-election in May 2021 with the Tories winning on 54% of the vote but with the Liberal Democrats in second place on 36%. A 9% swing given the current national polling picture is a very plausible outcome, although there is some evidence that the Tory polling slump has bottomed out.

The opening odds at Smarkets make this pretty much a coin toss between the Conservatives and Lib Dems, with Labour in a distant third place. I think if you forced me to place a bet I might side with the Tories partly because the current situation in Ukraine will understandably be much more prominent in voters' minds than the "partygate" stories that were dominating the news agenda juts a few weeks back.