Premier League: how Newcastle can thwart Arsenal's top four ambitions on Monday night

Arsenal’s fate in own hands but tough games await

Had Arsenal beaten Tottenham Hotspur in the north London derby on Thursday, the top-four race would already be done and dusted. Instead, Spurs’ victory in that match and their subsequent 1-0 triumph over Burnley on Sunday means Arsenal head to St James’ Park outside the Champions League qualification spots for the first time in a month.

Arsenal’s fate remains in their own hands. Beat Newcastle on Monday and Everton on the final weekend, and Mikel Arteta’s men will finish fourth. But the pressure is very much on. The manner of their defeat by Tottenham was concerning. Arsenal showed mental immaturity against their arch-rivals and were emphatically punished for it.

Neither of their remaining games will be easy. Newcastle have been excellent in 2022, pulling clear of the drop zone and towards mid-table. Everton have also picked up of late although they could still be uncertain of safety when they visit the Emirates on the final day.

Tottenham are now the favourites to finish in the top four with the Smarkets traders at 50%, compared to 47% for Arsenal (there is still a slim chance that both teams could qualify for Europe’s premier competition at the expense of Chelsea).

Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta has seen his side fall out of the Premier League top four for the first time in a month

Newcastle do not concede many at home

Newcastle have lost their last two matches to Liverpool and Manchester City, but they still have one of the best records in the division this calendar year: only the top two and Tottenham have accrued more points than Eddie Howe’s side since New Year’s Day.

United have been particularly impressive at home, making St James’ Park a fortress again. Liverpool eked out a 1-0 victory in the north east, but that came after a run of six consecutive victories for the Magpies in front of their own fans. Newcastle have not lost at home to a team outside the current top four since the opening day of the season.

In that light, Newcastle or draw in the double chance market looks appealing at 2.04. Consider, too, Arsenal to score under 1.5 goals at 1.95 – the Magpies have not conceded two goals or more in any home game this year.

Bruno Guimaraes' fine start to Tyneside life

Newcastle’s substantial investment in the January transfer window was a decisive factor in their subsequent revival. Of the new additions, none has caught the eye as much as Bruno Guimaraes. The Brazil international has provided a touch of class in the centre of the park, and his ability to pop up with a goal or two could be invaluable for Newcastle next term.

Guimaraes, who has scored four times in his nine Premier League starts for the club, is priced at an enticing 5.3 to find the back of the net anytime on Monday.

Recommended bets

Newcastle or draw @ 2.04

Arsenal under 1.5 goals @ 1.95

Guimaraes anytime @ 5.3