Panthers v Falcons Predictions: Home team set for crucial NFC South victory

Tom Collins

9 November 2022

The NFC South is undoubtedly the worst division in football, as proven by the Atlanta Falcons currently sitting in top spot despite boasting a negative 4-5 record.

Last week’s defeat to the Chargers came in heartbreaking fashion. Atlanta not only held a 10-0 lead early in the second quarter, but they also had a glaring chance to win the game as defensive end Ta’Quon Graham picked up Austin Ekeler’s fumble with just seconds on the clock, only to then cough up the ball himself in a crazy turn of events.

LA’s star signal caller Justin Herbert unsurprisingly returned his side to field goal range and kicker Cameron Dicker, who was on the Eagles roster only a month ago, pushed it through from 37 yards just moments later for a walk-off Chargers victory.

Meanwhile, the Panthers sit bottom of the NFC South and suffered anything but a last-second defeat on Sunday. In fact, they were never in the game as the Cincinnati Bengals steamrolled their way to a 42-21 success.

Joe Mixon’s five touchdowns - four of which came in the first half - was a league-high this term and brought a previously solid Carolina defence back to Earth. Now the question is: which team will bounce back in this crucial divisional match-up?

Moore time needed in first match-up

These two teams faced off just two weeks ago at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Georgia, Atlanta. The Falcons were four-point favourites on the spread, so perhaps many expected an easy home win. How wrong they were.

Atlanta did end up knocking off their local rivals, but it certainly wasn’t comfortable. In fact, at numerous points in the game it looked like Carolina was about to cause an almighty upset. They held a 28-24 lead with three minutes left on the clock, only to allow speedster Damiere Byrd to scythe through the secondary for a 47-yard touchdown.

Following another late Falcons field goal - which made the score 34-28 - after Carolina turned the ball over on downs, PJ (Walker) found DJ (Moore) on a 62-yard bomb to equal the score. The Panthers’ star receiver celebrated as if he won the game there and then, which earned him a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty and contributed to an Eddy Pineiro-missed extra point. Overtime followed.

Pineiro stepped up to redeem himself with a 32-yard attempt in overtime after CJ Henderson picked off Marcus Mariota, but he missed again. The Falcons needed no further invitations to stroll the length of the pitch and kick a game-winning field goal with two minutes left to play.

Had Moore kept his composure following the regulation time touchdown, the Panthers would have likely added an important road win to their seasonal record. That defeat will still be raw, so expect Carolina to be fired up for this rematch.

Passing game woes

Both Carolina and Atlanta struggle to throw the ball. The Panthers have averaged just 184.6 passing yards per game (fifth-worst in the league) so far this season, while the Falcons sit two places below them with a meagre 157.2 yards per game.

Those totals aren’t completely surprising, however. Atlanta is a run-first offence with dual-purpose quarterback Marcus Mariota at the helm. The versatile and powerful Cordarelle Patterson is always a threat with the ball in hand, while rookie Tyler Allgeier was just one yard short of his first 100-yard rushing game against the Chargers.

Gone are the days of Matt Ryan in Atlanta

Allgeier scored a touchdown against the Panthers earlier this year, but it came through the air. In fact, all three of their offensive scores were passing touchdowns as Carolina effectively took away the run for much of the game. Drake London, who has 33 catches from 56 targets this year, might be the guy to step up this time around.

The Panthers are yet to decide on a quarterback. PJ Walker was pulled at halftime from the game against Cincinnati after leading his team into the break with a 35-0 deficit. Baker Mayfield, who began the season as the number one, sparked some life into the offence in the second half but he has been generally inconsistent when opportunities have arised.

Walker was confirmed as the starter for this game on Tuesday, which indicates they will be looking to make the most of the run game. In the first match-up, D’Onta Foreman channeled his inner Derrick Henry to rush for 118 yards and three touchdowns from 26 touches. Expect him to run the rock similarly effectively this time around.

So, who will win?

The Falcons have been playing better football than Carolina this season, but I’m taking the Panthers at home, both with the handicap (+3 at 1.95) and money line (2.44).

D’Onta Foreman cut through the weak Atlanta rush defence on numerous occasions in the first match-up and Panthers’ offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo will likely put more emphasis on pounding the line of scrimmage this time as Atlanta have given up six rushing touchdowns in their last three games.

DJ Moore has a point to prove, while Terrace Marshall has recently stepped up to the plate as wide receiver two in this offence. The pair were targeted 20 times in Atlanta and looked to have the beating of the Falcons’ secondary, which is pretty banged up at the moment.

Atlanta has weapons in the form of Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Cordarelle Patterson, but shutting down the latter will be the first port of call. If that’s achieved, expect Carolina to pick up just their third win of the year.