Ravens v Buccaneers Tips: Back Baltimore to beat Brady's Bucs on Thursday night

Jack Goddard

26 October 2022

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens travel to the Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay on Thursday night, to take on Tom Brady and his misfiring Tampa Bay Buccaneers side.

Brady’s Bucs dropped to 3-4 at the weekend, after a truly shocking thrashing by the PJ Walker-led, Christian McCaffrey-less Carolina Panthers. They remain top of the NFC South however, as every other team in the division also sits on a losing record. Are they actually any good, or just the best of a bad bunch?

The Ravens, meanwhile, got their season back on track on Sunday with a narrow 23-20 defeat of the Cleveland Browns. Baltimore have had a pretty tough time holding on to a lead this season - they’ve given up three double-digit winning margins - but Jon Harbaugh’s defence held on to keep his side top of the AFC North.

Is Tom toast?

Tom Brady actually played okay against the Panthers, completing 32 of 49 passes for 290 yards and no interceptions. He also didn’t throw a single touchdown, but Mike Evans dropped an excellent pass that would have led to the first score of the game just 90 seconds in - had the veteran receiver made the catch, the Bucs may have gone on to win.

However, Brady’s scoreless performance on Sunday is probably indicative of a wider problem. The 45-year-old has thrown just two touchdowns in his last three games, and only eight all season. He’s on pace for just 19 over the year, which would be his lowest return ever. It would also be less than half of either of his previous totals in Tampa - where he’s thrown for 40 and 43 TDs in 2020 and 2021 respectively.

On the other side of the ball at least, Todd Bowles’ defence are giving Brady and his playmakers a chance to win low-scoring contests. The Tampa D is giving up 17.7 points per game on average so far this year, making it the fifth-best unit in the league. However, at home the Bucs are allowing 23.3 points per game. This figure is skewed due to Mahomes and the Chiefs’ 41-point game back in Week 4, but this will still give Baltimore plenty of hope.

Ravens keep tailing off

The Ravens have been up by ten or more points in six of their seven matchups this season, yet are somehow only sitting at 4-3. Sorry, scratch that. The Ravens have been up by ten or more points IN THE SECOND HALF in six of their seven matchups this season, and are STILL just 4-3.

In the Lamar Jackson era Baltimore were 31-2 in games they were leading by double digits in the second half going into this year, but this season already they are 3-3. So far in 2022, the Ravens have been outscored 71-25 in the fourth quarter - and this trend was evident at the weekend, as the Browns scored a touchdown then missed a 61-yard field-goal attempt in the final 15 minutes.

Despite the 71 points allowed in the fourth quarter alone, the Ravens’ defence have been reasonably solid, allowing just 19.7 points per game on the road. This can be attributed to the number of turnovers they are creating: Only two teams - the Buffalo Bills and the Philadelphia Eagles - have made more interceptions than Baltimore’s eight this season. Safety and former second-round pick Marcus Williams has three on the year already, while cornerback Marlon Humphrey has a further two.

Run for your life

Lamar Jackson completed just nine of a season-low 16 pass attempts at the weekend, as Gus Edwards returned to the Baltimore rushing attack with 66 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries.

Six players had at least one carry against the Browns, as the Ravens rushed for a total of 160 yards, but Tampa Bay are notoriously deadly against the run. Jackson and his side will need to find ways to complement their ground attack: Mark Andrews is currently banged up, so that responsibility may fall to Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay, who both collected a team-high 42 receiving yards against the Browns.

With a nullified Mark Andrews and Baltimore rushing game, I’m backing the under here with the over/under line at 45.5 - especially considering Tampa Bay are only averaging 14 points per game from their last three matches.

The Bucs have a lot to figure out on a short week after their humbling in Carolina. This game will be a tight one, but I back the Ravens to keep improving and just about stave off a late Brady fightback.