Eurovision 2023: Semi-Final 1 Complete Preview

I have good news and bad news. The bad news is that I did not receive press accreditation for this year’s Eurovision, but the good news is this means I will be publishing my final semi-final forecasts a bit earlier than expected.

Those with press access will be able to see the full three-minute ‘as seen on TV’ performances from Monday afternoon, by which point some of this analysis may be out of date. My thoughts below are based on the publicly-available rehearsal clips and everything else we know so far.

There hasn’t been a great deal of change in my semi-final one thoughts since my article three weeks ago. Finland looks the worthy favourite and current betting odds of 1.40–1.45 look about right. The images and videos of Käärijä’s rehearsals indicate that the performance has been elevated since the Finnish national final. It seems like the delegation has leaned more into the aggression and novelty elements of the song, which could cost Käärijä extra jury points in the grand final but gives no cause for concern in a televote-only semi-final.

In contrast, Sweden’s staging seems to have taken a clear step backwards from Melodifestivalen. I wrote back in March that it was ‘worth pointing out that the last few Swedish entries have all ended up looking worse on the actual Eurovision stage than they did in Melodifestivalen’, and I take no satisfaction in this trend continuing into 2023. The new LED screens, which take up less than half the surface area of the originals, embedded into almost Minecraft-esque wooden blocks, don’t translate nearly as well on camera and reduce the overall epic effect of Loreen’s performance. The Swedish delegation may have hoped that clever camera angles would reduce the impact of the smaller box, but the shots are also less dynamic than at Melfest. Some improvements may still be made, but history shows us that not a great deal changes between second rehearsals and the live shows. Loreen remains the next most-likely winner of the semi-final, but her chances have slipped since pre-rehearsals.

My next three most-likely winners all look like decent value in the markets. Norway (best odds of 27) is instantly-accessible, Israel (34) looks like they're offering up an award-show worthy performance by Noa Kirel, and televote powerhouse Moldova’s (140) staging looks solid and can’t be completely ruled out as a long-odds outsider. Semi-final televote scores can sometimes deliver unexpected results which don’t necessarily carry over to the grand final, so if you think Finland may take a second listen to connect and Sweden will underwhelm, one of these three could be a good shout.

Czech Republic has fallen to sixth in my latest forecast, with the staging not really delivering what I was hoping for based on the 30-second rehearsal clip. It remains a very likely qualifier but a lay at 1.08 doesn’t look the worst idea in the world, especially given the country’s historic struggle with the televote.

Croatia and Serbia remain underrated qualification prospects for this televote-only affair. Croatia looks particularly attractive at 1.5 to qualify, but a Finland semi-final win/Croatia/Moldova/Serbia qualification combo is available at 2.63 if you want some longer odds.

There’s not a great deal separating Portugal, Netherlands and Switzerland for me in terms of qualification prospects.

The Dutch package is probably the weakest of the three, but also has the best running order slot. Mia and Dion may still sneak through now the vocal issues seem to have been mostly ironed out, with a more cautious arrangement shifted by a few semitones and absent the big notes in the chorus.

Portugal’s stage looked very bare in the rehearsal clip, but it’s difficult to know whether a no-frills staging concept delivered by a competent performer could work for Mimicat as it did for Monika Liu last year, or whether this merely ends up forgotten.

Switzerland’s ‘Watergun’ looks like a quintessential Sacha Jean-Baptiste number, looking remarkably like 2019’s ‘She Got Me’, only in ballad form. Jean-Baptiste’s packages are usually much more jury- than televote-friendly, with televote scores on average around 25% lower than the jury side in the semi-final, and I don’t see that changing here. The Swiss staging looks customarily slick, but I'm not convinced that it effectively communicates the song’s emotion properly based on the short clip. If juries were active in the semi-finals this year, Switzerland would be looking at a potential top five jury score, but this remains a lay for me at the current price of 1.39.

Laying Portugal and Switzerland gives implied odds of about 1.9 that at least one of them will fail to qualify, which looks like good value.

Of the remaining four songs, only Malta looks like a realistic outside qualification prospect. Their bright and colourful presentation really stands out amongst the darker stage shows of the rest of the opening five, and remains pretty good value at 3.15 if you’re looking for an odds-against shot. While The Busker’s lead singer sounded pretty out of breath in the rehearsal clip, judging by the perspiration on the saxophonist’s forehead, I’m assuming this snippet was taken from the third or fourth consecutive run-through, so there’s probably nothing to worry about on that front.

Latvia, Azerbaijan and Ireland remain unlikely qualifiers.

Full forecast below.

Image of Loreen by Sarah Louise Bennett / EBU