Wimbledon Men’s Singles 2023 Predictions: Novak Djokovic can record sixth consecutive title

Andy Schooler

28 June 2023

Wimbledon this year will mark the 20th anniversary of Roger Federer’s first triumph.

By the time he won his eighth title in 2017, few could have expected that record to be equalled in the near future yet, just six years later, Novak Djokovic stands on the cusp of drawing level.

Since Federer’s demolition of Marin Cilic, Djokovic has won all four titles competed for in SW19 and so arrives at this year’s tournament on a 28-match winning streak at the All England Club. Given he’s also already won the Australian and French Open this season, it would take a brave man to lay the Serb in the outright market. That man is not me.

Djokovic is the master of producing his best tennis when it really matters - his recent Roland Garros triumph being a case in point. He raised his level to compete with and dismiss Carlos Alcaraz in the semi-finals and gave Casper Ruud little chance two days later. Now halfway to the Grand Slam, do not expect any let up here.

The only decision a punter needs to make, in my opinion, is whether there’s any value left in his price. It seems remarkable that he was available to back at 2.5 less than a month ago; now he’s 1.75. I’m only happy to back odds-on shots at Slams when I’m truly convinced they are going to win, and that just feels like the case here.

Alcaraz’s inexperience could let him down

The main reason behind that strong opinion is that there are very few genuine contenders in the rest of the field. Alcaraz looks the most likely challenger after his Queen’s Club victory, but the market agrees with that assessment and has made him 4.9 second favourite.

Still, anyone backing the top seed needs to go in fully aware of how he was consumed by nervous cramps during his French Open semi-final with Djokovic just a few weeks ago.

The expectation will be lower here, but then so is his surface experience. Alcaraz has only played at Wimbledon twice and is yet to go beyond round four. Djokovic, on the other hand, mastered the grass a long time ago.

Which longshots could go deep?

Of the pretenders, Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev both look potential lays for those prepared to risk high payouts for smaller rewards. Sinner withdrew from Halle injured, while Medvedev was disappointing in the warm-up events and isn’t best suited to grass.

The last two beaten finalists can also surely be opposed given Matteo Berrettini and Nick Kyrgios have barely played in the last few months.

For those seeking a big price in the win market ahead of Friday’s draw, Alex de Minaur and Hubert Hurkacz look the best bets. De Minaur impressed en route to the Queen’s Club final with his excellent retrieval and volleying skills. He should have also made the Wimbledon quarter-finals last year but blew a two-set lead against Cristian Garin.

Meanwhile, Hurkacz reached the semis in 2021 and won the strong warm-up event in Halle last season. This year he’s already made the last four in Stuttgart. If his serve clicks, the Pole will be hard to stop on this surface.