French Open 2023 Tips: Oppose poorly priced Swiatek with three value bets in women’s singles

Iga Swiatek is a firm favourite to win her third French Open title in four years, but is she a safe bet as an odds-on market leader right now?

The Pole, who has undoubtedly been the best clay-courter of the past three WTA seasons, was last seen quitting in her Rome quarter-final due to a thigh injury. Subsequent statements have hardly convinced that she’s going to be fine for her title defence and so I can’t see much logic in backing her at short odds when there’s an injury doubt hanging over her head.

While a fully-fit Swiatek would be a worthy favourite, it’s interesting to see that she’s a slightly shorter price this year than she was 12 months ago. Again, that’s worrying for me.

In 2022, Swiatek arrived on a 28-match winning streak and had dismantled all-comers – some of her set scores were frightening. She won in Stuttgart earlier this year, but she also lost the final of Madrid to Aryna Sabalenka and has been generally less impressive than 12 months ago. I’d also say it’s easier to come up with alternative winners than last season.

Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina have challenged the world number one’s dominance so far this year. The former won the Australian Open as well as that aforementioned Madrid title, while Wimbledon queen Rybakina has emerged victorious in two of the biggest events: Indian Wells and Rome.

French Open: the only grand slam tournament that is played on a clay court

Of the two, preference is for Sabalenka. Few women on tour hit the ball harder and she’s undoubtedly improved her control this season, thus lowering her error count.

The altitude of Madrid undoubtedly helped her topple Swiatek, but back down towards sea level she also put up a decent-enough fight in the Stuttgart final against the same opponent.

Talk of exhaustion following an early loss in Rome isn’t what punters want to hear, but a decent rest after back-to-back finals should have served the Belarusian well heading to Roland Garros. She’s worth backing at 8.

Further down the market, the form of two players makes their odds appeal. First up is Paula Badosa, who enjoys playing on clay and made the quarter-finals on this surface in Charleston, Stuttgart and Rome, notching plenty of match wins in the process.

She’s beaten the likes of Daria Kasatkina, Coco Gauff and Ons Jabeur, while her losses at those three aforementioned events have all come in tight encounters against quality foes. She lost in three sets to Aryna Sabalenka and Jelena Ostapenko (a former French Open champion), and a straight-sets defeat (6-3, 7-6) to Jessica Pegula.

In a tournament that has had more than its fair share of surprises over the years, Badosa, who made the last eight here in 2021, looks to have potential at 23.

Finally, consider Veronika Kudermetova at 55. The aggressive baseliner comes in off semi-final runs in both Madrid and Rome and is back knocking on the door of the top 10.

The Russian was also a quarter-finalist at Roland Garros 12 months ago, so has proved she can perform at this venue, and looks capable of going deep again.

French Open Women’s Singles Predictions

Back Aryna Sabalenka @ 8
Back Paula Badosa @ 23
Back Veronika Kudermetova @ 55