Australian Open Women’s Singles: Czech duo look the value plays

Reigning Australian Open champion Ashleigh Barty won’t be in Melbourne this year due to retirement. Neither will Serena Williams, or her supposed heir, Naomi Osaka, who may never return to the heights that saw her claim two Australian Open titles.

So, who is filling the power vacuum? Iga Swiatek holds strong claims after capturing two Grand Slams in 2022 and replacing Barty at the top of the world rankings. However, it has been a concerning start to the new season for the Polish star, who currently looks more like a sell than a buy at 3.2 on the Smarkets exchange.

Swiatek suffered a two-set mauling at the hands of Jessica Pegula at the United Cup team event, a result which proved the theory that the number one spot can be vulnerable in quick conditions. 

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The Greenset courts, which were laid in 2020, have sped things up at Melbourne Park and the light Dunlop balls also add pace to the game. Consequently, Swiatek may struggle to win a tournament at which she’s yet to make the final.

Aryna Sabalenka, who is priced at 10, doesn’t appear either. I have long believed that she’s capable of winning a major event but, while she may be able to put it together for a fortnight, her ball-bashing style is too prone to producing errors. At most Slams I expect her to beat herself - remember, you need to win seven good matches at this level.

Caroline Garcia (13.5) and the aforementioned Pegula (13) both have potential given the way they finished last season and started this one, but my preference in what looks a wide-open event is to take a chance on a couple of bigger-priced outsiders.

Czechmates

Both players I like come from one of the world’s strongest tennis nations - the Czech Republic. The first is Barbora Krejcikova, who made the quarter-finals here last season when seeded fourth but is available at a much bigger price (23) this time around.

That’s because her 2022 was interrupted by an elbow injury, although it notably ended with WTA titles in both Tallinn and Ostrava. At the latter event, Krejcikova defeated the aforementioned Swiatek in the final and proved that she’s very much back among the elite.

I’m not sure her Australian Open price suggests that, though. Having also made the quarter-finals of the 2021 US Open – another hard court event - I think that she’s worth chancing.

The same can be said about her compatriot, Petra Kvitova. The 32-year-old recorded an eyecatching win over Pegula at the United Cup to kickstart her season, and has played well at Melbourne Park in the past, most memorably reaching the 2019 final before losing to Osaka.

Her big, left-handed serve is a serious weapon on a quick court and she should get favourable conditions here. At 60, the former Wimbledon champion looks overpriced.

Australian Open Women’s Singles Predictions

Back Barbora Krejcikova @ 23
Back Petra Kvitova @ 60