Glorious Goodwood Tips: Nassau Stakes selection among three picks for Thursday

2.25 Goodwood - Richmond Stakes

A race that sees a couple of lines of Royal Ascot form pitted against each other. Royal Scotsman was a good third in the Coventry Stakes where the stiff nature of the track possibly stretched his stamina. The form of that race looks strong with Persian Force, who finished second, winning the July Stakes at Newmarket on his next start, while the fourth-placed Blackbeard was victorious in the Prix Robert Papin.

Royal Scotsman has already proven an ability to handle the undulations of this track when winning over five furlongs on his second start and is a deserving market leader. The Windsor Castle form has been frequently boosted with all of the first four home, as well as the eighth and the 11th all winning their next contest.

Having been a fast-finishing fourth over five furlongs in the Windsor Castle, Chateau looked to appreciate the extra furlong when winning at Newbury on his next start and was value for more than the official winning margin of one-length as he was repeatedly hampered in the closing stages. Having coped well with Salisbury and Beverley I’m confident he’ll handle the track and if able to get a clear passage through the race he’s capable of beating the favourite.

Selection: Chateau @ 4

3.35 Goodwood - Qatar Nassau Stakes

After Emily Upjohn delivered an abject performance in last Saturdays King George VI & Queen Elizabeth stakes, which followed an equally poor showing from Tuesday, in the Irish Derby, you’d have to say the form of the Epsom Oaks is looking questionable. Nashwa who finished third at Epsom has at least won since but in a manner that underwhelmed me, as she was all out to hold off La Parisienne, who had previously been beaten in a listed contest. I understand why John and Thady Gosden’s filly is the favourite but I’m keen to oppose her.

Tom Clover is enjoying a strong season, operating at a healthy 17% winners to runners. He picked up Rogue Millennium from Shadwell at last December's sales, the £35,000 price tag looks money well spent as she’s won two of her four starts, and surely gave her syndicate of owners a memorable day when finishing seventh in the Oaks. She travelled stylishly through that contest and looked sure to play a part in the finish before her stamina gave out as she weakened dramatically inside the last furlong. She has four lengths to find with Nashwa but back at this trip I fancy that’s a distinct possibility and consider her to be overpriced.

It’s true that a poor run at Newcastle on the all-weather needs to be forgiven but she wouldn’t be the first horse to not cope with the surface and the race may simply have come too soon for her. I expect her to be fresh and back to her best after a month’s break and fancy her to shake up the odds-on favourite.

Selection: Rogue Millennium @ 17.5

4.10 Goodwood - Jaeger-LeCoultre Nursey Handicap

Kevin Philippart De Foy is a trainer I have a huge amount of time for, he places his horses well and is often able to improve previously moderate horses. Faisal Road looked far from moderate when winning on his debut when in the care of John and Thady Gosden, winning at Yarmouth in a novice race that has worked out well, with the second-placed Changing Colours winning his next start, as did the third-placed Finn’s Charm – who is now rated 92.

His next start in the Chesham was a disaster, he broke slowly and from there on was always on the back foot and never able to land a blow. This represents a significant drop in grade, and I’m always prepared to forgive one poor run.

It would be wrong to suggest the stable switch is a positive but by the same token I certainly see it as far from a negative and it’s worth noting that Philippart De Foy produced Al Dasim, in the same ownership, to win well at Windsor on Monday night after he was transferred from Clive Cox. A mark of 86 looks more than fair and I’m confident of a big run in a wide-open contest.

Selection: Faisal Road @ 9.8

Recommended bets

Chateau @ 4

Rogue Millennium @ 17.5

Faisal Road @ 9.8