Spain Grand Prix 2023 Predictions: Home heroes can feature while Red Bull dominance continues

Phillip Horton

1 June 2023

Barcelona, famous for its Gaudi architecture and footballing excellence, has hosted Formula One’s Spanish Grand Prix since 1991.

The track, which is located to the north of the Catalan capital, has been a mainstay on Formula One’s schedule ever since and has also been a regular home of pre-season testing.

That means F1 teams and drivers have vast experience of the nuances of the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, which is known as a track that places an emphasis on aerodynamic prowess and high-speed balance.

That will take on an added importance in 2023 as the cumbersome unloved final chicane, which has been in place for 15 years, has been axed from the layout. That will aid the flow of the track while also raising speeds through the final two corners and onto the start/finish straight.

A good starting spot required

Spain’s grand prix can often be formulaic – dare we say processional – owing to the nature of the circuit, which has a tendency to string the drivers out in car performance order more than most tracks.

Of Barcelona’s 32 grands prix, 23 have been won by the driver starting from pole position and only three have been won from outside of the front row of the grid. Fernando Alonso’s fifth spot in 2013 is the lowest position from which the race has been won in Barcelona’s three-decade history.

Meanwhile, 26 have been won by the team that went on to win that year’s Constructors’ Championship, which shows how a good car in Spain is likely to be strong through the remainder of the season.

Red Bull still on top

Red Bull made it six-out-of-six this season with victory in Monaco as Max Verstappen mastered a dry/wet race strategy to open a 39-point lead over stymied teammate Sergio Perez.

Verstappen claimed his maiden Formula One win on his Red Bull debut in Spain in 2016, and last year cruised to victory at the track despite an uncharacteristic off-track excursion.

Given the performance of the RB19 it would not be a surprise to see Red Bull lock out the front row of the grid before streaking off into a different postcode in the race.

Double home hopes?

Red Bull are running away with the season and remain firm favourites to sweep the weekend, but Spain has two representatives competing towards the sharp end of the grid.

For the first time since 2013 – a race he won, which remains his most recent victory – Fernando Alonso arrives on home soil with a package capable of regularly competing for podiums.

Alonso became the first Spanish victor of Formula One’s Spanish Grand Prix in 2006 – the year in which he won his second world title – and three of his 32 victories have come on home soil, having won the now discontinued Valencia event back in 2012.

He has taken five podiums from six races in 2023 and is undoubtedly a favourite to pocket another trophy this weekend.

Carlos Sainz has a 100% scoring record at Barcelona since joining F1 in 2015, but he is still chasing his first home podium having placed a best of fourth in 2022. He and Ferrari have had a less prosperous season than his more decorated compatriot as he has yet to finish higher than fourth in 2023.