Azerbaijan Grand Prix Predictions: Two chances at glory for Formula One’s Baku pack

Phillip Horton

28 April 2023

After a four-week break, Formula One springs back into life with five rounds in six weekends that starts in Azerbaijan, which will also host the first Sprint of the year.

What is a Sprint race - and what has changed in 2023?

Sprint was introduced by Formula One in 2021 in one of the biggest shake-ups to the sport’s format in history.

A Sprint race is approximately one-third of a grand prix distance and will be held on Saturday afternoon, ahead of Sunday’s main grand prix. For 2023, the presence of a Sprint has been expanded from three to six grands prix. 

The points system remains unchanged from 2022 with the top eight finishers receiving points, but the structure of the weekend has been altered. The usual qualifying session on Friday afternoon will now set the grid for the main grand prix on Sunday – effectively splitting Sprint as a separate Saturday-only affair.

It’s worth noting that the second practice session, which became redundant at Sprint weekends, has been replaced by a condensed version of the usual qualifying format – the outcome of which will set the grid for Sprint. 

It is consequently hoped that drivers will take more of a risk in Sprint given the outcome no longer influences the race starting order. 

Verstappen firmly the favourite

It’s a sentence likely to be repeated a fair bit in 2023, but reigning World Champion Max Verstappen is once again the firm favourite to succeed on Sunday.

Verstappen has won two of the three grands prix this year and finished runner-up in the other, despite starting a compromised 15th on the grid. The Dutchman also won last season’s race in Azerbaijan in comfortable fashion, and was only denied in 2021 by a late tyre failure that caused a sizeable accident. 

Teammate Sergio Perez picked up the pieces on that occasion for his first win in Red Bull colours at a venue where he has a strong record. He had previously achieved podium finishes in 2016 and 2018 when he competed for then-midfield team Force India. 

But if a statistic continues…

The Baku City Circuit has hosted six grands prix and six different drivers have triumphed, meaning either Verstappen or Perez will break new ground if they maintain Red Bull’s unbeaten start to 2023. Of the current other front-runners,  only Lewis Hamilton (2018) has savoured success in Baku.

Ferrari has never triumphed in Baku despite Charles Leclerc claiming pole position in both 2021 and 2022. He slipped to fourth in 2021, while last year he retired due to an engine failure.

Aston Martin – a standout second in this year’s standings – has also never won in Baku. Might this therefore be a strong opportunity for Fernando Alonso?

Alonso has recorded a podium finish at each of the opening three of events, and demonstrated the all-round strength of Aston Martin’s AMR23. He will be well-positioned to capitalise if Red Bull falters. 

The high-speed wall-lined nature of the Baku circuit means a Safety Car or red flag is never too far away, which could upend proceedings and lead to a surprise winner or podium finisher. However, the safest play from a trading point of view is to stick with the most logical winner and that is Verstappen.

Azerbaijan Grand Prix Predictions

Max Verstappen to win @ 1.4
Red Bull both cars podium finish @ 1.71


Phillip Horton

28 April 2023

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