Australian Grand Prix 2023 Predictions: How can you back against Red Bull?

Formula One’s roadshow moves onto Australia, Melbourne more specifically, and another semi-permanent street-based facility. 

Australia has been part of the F1 calendar since 1985. The Aussies initially hosted the season finale in Adelaide, before switching to the season opener when Melbourne took over the rights in 1996. 

The southern hemisphere venture returned in 2022 after a two-year pandemic-enforced absence and slotted into a tweaked April date as the third round of the campaign, a position it has retained for 2023. 

This grand prix takes place in the leafy surroundings of Albert Park, a short tram ride from downtown Melbourne, and is one of the most popular events of the season.

Red Bull chase rare success 

Red Bull Racing is likely to reach a century of Formula One victories this season despite recording the first of its 94 wins just 14 years ago. However, only one of those successes has come around the streets of Albert Park – making it statistically one of the weakest venues for the reigning champions. 

That win was achieved in 2011 thanks to Sebastian Vettel, back when he successfully began the defence of his title in imperious fashion. Reigning world champion Max Verstappen, who has taken all of his wins with Red Bull, is still chasing his first victory down under. 

Melbourne is where Verstappen debuted back in 2015, but his sole podium came in 2019. On last year’s return to the venue after its pandemic-enforced two-year absence, he retired due to a fuel leak. 

His poor record here should change as Red Bull has dominated the opening stages of the 2023 season with its RB19 car.

Verstappen and Sergio Perez have led a 1-2 finish for Red Bull in the opening pair of events - Verstappen was victorious in Bahrain while Perez triumphed in Saudi Arabia. The Dutchman’s runner-up finish in Saudi Arabia from 15th on the grid due to a driveshaft failure in qualifying, merely cemented the team’s status as champions elect even this early in the year. 

It is likely to take a confluence of factors – reliability setbacks, strategic blunders, wet weather, Safety Car timing misfortune or even a collision – to derail the Red Bull roadshow.

A wall-lined temporary facility at an event where Red Bull has rarely been supreme – and where late summer weather can be fickle – could provide an opening for a rival. Though it’s still a longshot. 

Any hope of home success?

To put it bluntly – no. There hasn’t been an Australian winner of the Australian Grand Prix since the race became a World Championship event in 1985. 

A local has not even made it onto the podium in Melbourne, despite Australia boasting race winners Mark Webber and Daniel Ricciardo from 2002 to 2022. 

They hailed from New South Wales and Western Australia respectively. This year the spotlight will fall on a proper Melburnian, with McLaren rookie Oscar Piastri having grown up in the nearby affluent seaside suburb of Brighton. Expectations, though, will need to be tempered. 

Piastri has been touted as a potential future world champion and has a distinguished junior record, but he is at the start of his Formula One journey with a McLaren team that is still awaiting its heavily upgraded 2023 car. 

Eighth on the grid in Jeddah provided a glimpse of Piastri’s talent, before a first-lap skirmish wrecked his race prospects. So getting into the top 10 – in either qualifying or the race – would represent a superb outcome for Piastri, who has never before competed in motorsport on home turf. 

Australian Grand Prix Predictions

Max Verstappen to win @ 1.4
Sergio Perez top-two finish @ 1.6
Fernando Alonso top-three finish @ 1.72