Premier League: why history suggests Man City and Liverpool will produce goals

Title decider?

Manchester City host Liverpool on Sunday in a match that is widely being tipped to decide the destination of the Premier League title.

Pep Guardiola’s side have been gradually reeled in by their hosts after building a double-digit lead at one point, and are now given a 66% chance of winning the trophy, down from a peak of 92%. The Reds, meanwhile, are at 34% - but these odds will shift dramatically depending on the outcome of Sunday’s big match.

City are on offer at 2.12 to claim a win that would see them with one hand on another crown, but Liverpool can be backed at 3.65 to come away with a victory. A draw, meanwhile, can be backed at 3.8.

City’s strong Liverpool record

Manchester City are the club with the upper hand in this rivalry in recent years. They have lost only one of their last 12 home matches against the Reds – and not a single one since Jurgen Klopp’s first visit to the Etihad wound up in a spectacular 4-1 win.

Furthermore, they have also lost only one of their previous eight meetings with the Anfield club in all competitions.

Earlier this season, though, Guardiola’s men were forced to fight back from a goal down on two occasions to secure a 2-2 draw at Anfield. Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah struck for the Reds only for Phil Foden and Kevin De Bruyne to reply for City in a match that saw much of its important action packed into a thrilling last 30 minutes.

Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp has seen his side win 16 of their last 18 games

Reds in brilliant form

Liverpool, meanwhile, may not be able to call upon too many positive recent memories against City, but their overall form has been immense. Klopp has led his side to 16 victories in their last 18 matches in all competitions, while their last dropped points in the Premier League came against Chelsea on January 2.

Another slight edge that the Reds may possess is that they can focus more fully on this game after an emphatic 3-1 win away against Benfica in the Champions League in midweek. Luis Diaz’s late goal means they have a cushion that they surely will not surrender at home on Wednesday, while City face an altogether dicier challenge when they travel to Atletico Madrid holding just a one-strike edge.

Whatever the outcome, these clubs can look forward to another meeting next weekend, albeit in the FA Cup. This is the match that both really want to win, though.

Back a thriller

Although the stakes are high, history suggests that this is a game in which there will be goals. Both teams have scored in six of the last seven meetings between these clubs in all competitions, while four of the last five fixtures between these teams have seen at least three goals.

As for those likely to find the net? Salah has scored in four of his last five against Man City, but greater value lies in backing Phil Foden to score for the hosts. He has scored in three of the last four against Liverpool.

Recommended bets

Both teams to score @ 1.73

Salah anytime @ 3.4

Foden anytime @ 3.6