Premier League: Steven Gerrard to compound Toffees' woes

Everton and Aston Villa are clubs of a similar size, but the mood around the two sides could hardly be more different. Optimism abounds at Aston Villa, who have only lost once to a non-top three side since Steven Gerrard took the reins. Villa have done some exciting business this transfer window, and under their new manager's astute leadership this team could be ready to challenge for Europe next term.

Everton's ambitions aren't quite as lofty. Rafael Benitez was relieved of his duties following a 2-1 defeat by Norwich last time out. The Toffees have only won one of their last 13 matches and are now only six points clear of the relegation zone.

Duncan Ferguson has been appointed interim manager for a second time. Unlike Benitez, the Scot will be afforded the full backing of the Goodison Park faithful. Whether that's enough to spark a turnaround remains to be seen.

Toffees low on confidence after dismal run

Everton are unlikely to go down, but there's no doubt they're stuck in a rut right now. Benitez was unpopular from the start and he didn't do a particularly good job at Goodison, but we're unlikely to see an instant improvement from the Toffees now that he's gone.

The players look low on confidence and it will take a while for them to rediscover their belief. Villa can take advantage of Everton being at a low ebb, particularly as they will have been buoyed by their comeback in last weekend's 2-2 draw with Manchester United.

Everton have been disorganised defensively for some time, and have kept just one clean sheet since September. Things haven't really been clicking in attack either, so back Aston Villa to register a shut-out at 3.25.

Villa playing with a swagger and will be out to win

Gerrard will not settle for a point on Saturday. Everton are there for the taking and he will be desperate to get one over on Liverpool's local rivals.

Philippe Coutinho, another man with Liverpool connections, got his Villa career off to a fine start last time out. He came off the bench to provide an assist and score a goal as Villa fought back against United - a contribution that will have been celebrated by fans of his last English club.

The Brazilian is likely to start this weekend, and our traders price him at 4.4 to score anytime. Given Everton's struggles at the back and Coutinho's penchant for taking shots, that looks like good value.

Sometimes the most obvious picks are the best ones. Villa are moving in the right direction while Everton are in a deep malaise. Back an away win at 2.74.

Recommended bets

Aston Villa to win at 2.74

Philippe Coutinho to score anytime at 4.4

Aston Villa to keep a clean sheet at 3.25