Premier League: Who's going to win the title, finish in the top four and who is going down?

Greg Lea

30 January 2024

The Premier League’s mini-winter break is over, with 10 fixtures scheduled to take place across Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Before those games take place, we have taken a look at the state of play in England’s top flight, focusing on three key betting markets.

Premier League Winner

 Liverpool lead the way in the Premier League title race as things stand. Jurgen Klopp’s side have still only lost one game this term and they currently sit five points clear at the summit of the standings. The Reds also have the best defensive record in the division, yet they are only the second-favourites to finish atop the table at 3.55.

That is because Manchester City are still favoured at a price of 1.72. Pep Guardiola’s side have been there and done it, and their starting XI remains the strongest in the division. Yet City have not been firing on all cylinders for much of the campaign and have dropped points in more than a third of their games to date.

Arsenal are now outsiders in the title race at 9.8. Mikel Arteta’s men have regressed since the first half of last season, but they are still in the conversation given Liverpool are only five points ahead.

Tip: Liverpool to win the title at 3.55

Premier League Top Four

Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal are available at 1.03, 1.04 and 1.13 respectively to qualify for the Champions League. But who will join them in the top four?

Tottenham Hotspur are the favourites at 1.98. There is no doubt that Ange Postecoglou’s side are ahead of schedule. Spurs only finished eighth last season, after which they lost their greatest ever player. But Tottenham are playing attractive, attack-minded football, and their goal numbers are only just shy of those of Liverpool and Manchester City.

Another potential advantage for Tottenham is that they do not have European football to contend with. Aston Villa, listed at 2.02, do. Currently fourth in the standings, Unai Emery’s side had a fantastic first part of the campaign. But it remains to be seen whether they can remain this consistent over a 38-game season.

Newcastle United (13.5), Chelsea (14.5) and Manchester United (14.5) all have too much ground to make up. Smarkets traders see this is a two-horse race between Tottenham and Villa.

Tip: Tottenham to finish in the top four at 1.98

Premier League Relegation

The three promoted clubs have had a difficult start to life in the Premier League. Sheffield United, priced at 1.11 to go down, have a seven-point deficit to make up having won only two of their first 21 matches this season.

Burnley have fared slightly better, but they too are in a precarious position. The Clarets have played some good football at times, yet right now they are coming up short in both boxes. Vincent Kompany’s side are available at 1.3 to finish in the bottom three. 

Luton Town (1.59) have been the most competitive of the promoted trio. Whether they have enough quality in the ranks to survive is another question. Nottingham Forest (2.9) have more talent within their ranks, but there is a threat of a points deduction hanging over their heads. 

Everton (4.4) have already had 10 points taken off their tally. Sean Dyche’s side have played pretty well so far, but they are only one point above the dreaded dotted line ahead of the midweek round of fixtures.

Tip: Sheffield United (1.11), Burnley (1.3) and Luton Town (1.59) to go down

Greg Lea

30 January 2024

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