Premier League Betting Tips: Liverpool, Arsenal and Newcastle all in action

James Cantrill

28 September 2023

The Premier League returns for matchday seven following a midweek full of Carabao Cup action - here are five tips from five top flight matches on Saturday and Sunday. 

Aston Villa vs Brighton

Kick-off: 12:30 Saturday, TNT Sports 1 

Goals and Aston Villa, it has been a staple of the tipsheet so far and with them hosting Brighton in the early kick off this Saturday, it would be stupid to ditch this angle now. 

The Villains 1-0 victory at Stamford Bridge was the first time this season one of their games failed to feature at least three goals, 10 games played in all competitions and 90 per cent have seen over 2.5 goals click. 

Coincidentally, the Seagulls EFL Cup game with Chelsea was also the first time unders clicked in one of their games this season. The other seven matches saw a gluttony of goals, 31 to be exact.

Prediction: Over 3.5 goals at 2.18

Bournemouth vs Arsenal

Kick-off: 15:00 Saturday

Arsenal head to the south coast with a lengthening list of absentees. Jurrien Timber and Thomas Partey could be joined by Gabriel Martinelli, Leandro Trossard, Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka with the quartet all emerging as doubts. 

I am not exactly sure where that leaves the Gunners but the complexion of the North London Derby completely changed when Rice did not emerge for the second half. His replacement, Jorginho had his pocket picked for the equaliser. 

Bournemouth have fallen victim to a brutal schedule but have found the net in two thirds of their six games. Both teams to score is the best bet here. 

Prediction: Both teams to score at 1.71

Newcastle vs Burnley 

Kick-off: 15:00 Saturday

After flattering to deceive in the early parts of the season, Newcastle have suddenly clicked into gear. The point at the San Siro was a springboard and in the week since, the Magpies thumped Sheffield United 8-0 and edged past Manchester City in the cup. 

With Paris Saint-Germain in town on Wednesday, Eddie Howe should be shuffling his deck this weekend. Even with the Toon juggling European and domestic duty, they should cruise through this clash with Burnley. 

Vincent Kompany’s side shipped 11 goals against Man City, Villa and Spurs and could be in for another dour away day at St James’ Park.  

Prediction: Newcastle to score over 2.5 goals at 2.14

West Ham vs Sheffield United

Kick-off: 15:00 Saturday

A side managed by David Moyes with James Ward-Prowse on set pieces have scored loads of goals from dead ball situations? I don’t believe it. 

West Ham have racked up an xG of 2.45 from set pieces, Ward-Prowse has three assists, two of which have come via corners and each of those were nodded in by centre backs. 

Nayef Aguerd scored the opener against Chelsea and Kurt Zouma scored the second against Luton, it is the former's price that interests me here as his side take on the worst side in the division at defending set pieces. 

The Blades top the charts for goals (4) and xG conceded (3.47), in their most recent game Dan Burn and Sven Botman were amongst the goals.  

Prediction: Kurt Zouma to score anytime at 8.2

Tottenham vs Liverpool

Kick-off: 17:30 Saturday, Sky Sports 

The bookies are clearly expecting a goal laden clash at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Over 2.5 goals is priced around 1.40 generally making the implied probability of a three or more goal game 71.4%. 

Considering this, it would be daft not to tout a goalscorer and Darwin Nunez’s price appeals. 

The Uruguayan forward is reaping the rewards of working with international manager Marcelo Bielsa. He has scored two in his last two starts, one of which from the spot, which is pivotal for the confidence of a player such as Nunez. 

The frontman also grabbed a brace at St James’ Park, reaping the rewards of a high defence line and could have similar joy in North London.  

Prediction: Darwin Nunez to score anytime at 2.62

Recommended Bets

Over 3.5 Goals in Aston Villa vs Brighton at 2.18
Both teams to score in Bournemouth vs Arsenal at 1.71
Newcastle to score over 2.5 goals against Burnley at 2.14
Kurt Zouma to score anytime at 8.2
Darwin Nunez to score anytime at 2.62

James Cantrill

28 September 2023

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