Premier League: Arsenal set to continue top four push at Watford

Arsenal in pole position to finish fourth

Arsenal might only be sixth in the Premier League table going into the weekend, but they are now the favourites to qualify for the Champions League alongside Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea. Our traders rate the Gunners’ chances of a top-four finish at 54%, ahead of Manchester United at 27% and Tottenham Hotspur at 13%.

Arsenal are two points adrift of fourth spot but they have three games in hand on United, its current occupiers. Mikel Arteta’s side are ahead of schedule. Arsenal made a conscious effort to lower the average age of the squad last summer, and few anticipated them being in such a strong position in the top-four race as the business end of the season approaches.

Only the top three and Wolverhampton Wanderers have conceded fewer goals than Arsenal this term. Arteta has made his team more steely and resolute, and we should see those qualities on display this weekend. Watford are not exactly free-scoring, as we will touch on below, so consider an Arsenal clean sheet at 2.04.

Arsenal's Alexandre Lacazette will be aiming to help his team increase their chances of claiming a top four finish

Hodgson's big job

Roy Hodgson has experience of steering teams clear of relegation trouble, as he did with great success at Fulham and Crystal Palace. Yet the 74-year-old will be under no illusions as to the difficulty of his task at Vicarage Road. Watford might only be three points adrift of safety, but they have lost 17 of their 26 matches this term and still have to travel to Anfield, the Etihad, and Stamford Bridge.

The Hornets produced a battling performance against Manchester United last time out. A 0-0 draw meant they have now kept clean sheets in three of their six games under Hodgson, but their increased defensive solidity has coincided with a dip in attacking output: Watford have scored only two goals under their new boss.

Given that Arsenal have not notched more than two goals in any of their last five matches, go for an away win and under 2.5 goals at an attractive price of 3.45.

Martinelli’s return a boost for Arsenal

Gabriel Martinelli returned from a two-match ban in the 2-1 victory over Wolves in Arsenal’s last game. The Brazilian is only 20 years old but he is already one of the Gunners’ most important players. His willingness to attack the penalty box means he regularly gets into scoring positions, and his off-the-ball movement is more developed than you would expect for someone so young.

Martinelli has only scored four goals this season, but it is worth noting that he has started just 12 times in the Premier League. At 2.78 he is good value to find the back of the net anytime at Vicarage Road on Sunday.

Recommended bets

Arsenal and under 2.5 goals @ 3.45

Arsenal clean sheet @ 2.04

Martinelli anytime @ 2.78