Premier League 22/23: could Newcastle provide value for a shock top four spot?

Robin Bairner

3 July 2022

The 2021-22 Premier League campaign was one of the most dramatic ever, with the title race going down to the last quarter of an hour before Manchester City secured a second successive crown thanks to an impressive late rally to beat Aston Villa, consigning Liverpool to another runners-up spot. 

With a month before the start of the 2022-23 campaign, these clubs are again the leading contenders to fight for honours – but who else might be in the mix? Will Manchester United’s prospects be enhanced by the appointment of Erik ten Hag as manager, and can Arsenal finally make a return to the Champions League?

Here’s your complete guide to the Premier League 2022-23 season.

The title contenders

It’s widely assumed that there will be no change in the leading two clubs fighting for the Premier League title next season, with Manchester City and Liverpool once again clear favourites for success. Given that the gulf between these clubs and the rest of the pack was a massive 18 points, that is entirely understandable. And the dominance of this pair in recent years shows this was no fluke. 

Both City and Liverpool have worked quickly to strengthen their squads over the summer, but it is the former who look a more complete unit with the arrival of Erling Haaland – the player who is expected to provide them with the cutting edge they occasionally lacked last season. Their price of 1.67 makes them hot favourites. 

Liverpool, meanwhile, are on offer at 4.2. Losing Sadio Mane is a significant blow for the Anfield club, who are in a state of transition this summer. Darwin Nunez has arrived from Benfica, but while he was prolific in Portugal, analysts are split over his ability to thrive in the Premier League. Although Mohamed Salah has signed a new contract with the club, seeing their price come in slightly, there are undoubtedly more question marks over Jurgen Klopp’s troupe. 

The outsiders

Can anyone mount a challenge to the established duo? It looks unlikely, with the remainder of the Big 6 set to scrap for the two other Champions League spots.

Tottenham’s strong performance under Antonio Conte has them third favourites at 16. Spurs might have had a strong end to the previous season and a promising summer transfer window to date, but the Italian has a history of struggling when his teams are forced to play three games in a week. This season, that challenge will be more prominent than ever given the World Cup break and the hectic schedule it will bring. 

Chelsea, meanwhile, are on offer at 18.5. Following the Blues’ turbulent 2021/22 campaign, there is work to be done in the summer transfer window, but should that be accomplished, they are likely to emerge as the third force once more.

Manchester United (48), Arsenal (50) and even Newcastle (100) are clear outsiders.

Liverpool are second favourites for the title after losing Sadio Mane over the summer, although they have signed Darwin Nunez

Who'll make the Fab Four? 

So what of the Top 4 race? Manchester City and Liverpool should be givens – the Reds’ price of 1.14 to make that grade is an interesting price for those interested in long investments – but the other two spots are less clear.

Man Utd’s slow summer transfer progress does not bode well, which leaves their price of 2.68 looking rather short. Arsenal may yet prove value at 2.78, but they need to strengthen up front to stand a realistic chance. Meanwhile, Spurs at 1.73 and Chelsea at 1.75 both look solid bets. 

Newcastle at 9.4 could be worth a nibble. Although Eddie Howe’s side have made an unspectacular start to the summer transfer window, the momentum they showed in the latter half of 2021-22 suggests they could be a force to be reckoned with even without a marquee arrival or two. 

Ready for a dogfight

At the other end of the table, promoted clubs are always in the firing line when it comes to relegation. This season is no different, with Bournemouth (1.71), Nottingham Forest (1.94) and Fulham (2.34) the favourites to go down. 

Of this trio, backing the Cottagers for the drop appears to be the best value. They might have run away with the Championship title, but Aleksandar Mitrovic, who was so prolific last term, only has 24 Premier League career goals in more than 100 appearances. Given how much Fulham leant on him, this is a point of concern.

Of the established Premier League clubs, Leeds are the team in greatest danger at 3.3. Manager Jesse Marsch has drafted in players from the Red Bull franchises – Leipzig and Salzburg – and must hope that they can hit the ground running given it seems inevitable that Raphinha will follow Kalvin Phillips in leaving the club.

Brentford at 3.6 are seen as vulnerable, though the shrewd transfer work of the Bees should not be underestimated. If they lose Christian Eriksen, though, that would be a significant blow given what he gave to them as they lagged in the second half of last term. 

Everton at 5.7 should not be discounted from the race. Frank Lampard struggled to turn things around at Goodison Park last season, winning just 0.1 points per game more than the sacked Rafa Benitez. Costs are set to be cut and losing Richarlison, who supplied 10 goals and five assists in 30 Premier League appearances, will be a huge blow. 

Recommended bets 

Man City @ 1.67

Liverpool top four @ 1.14

Newcastle top four @ 9.4

Fulham relegation @ 2.34

Robin Bairner

3 July 2022

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