FA Cup 3rd round: Back Arsenal to beat Forest

Nottingham Forest go into their FA Cup third-round clash with Arsenal on Sunday with the aim of eliminating the club that has enjoyed more success in this competition than any other.

The Championship outfit will play their first match of the year having been forced to cancel last Monday’s clash with Barnsley because of Covid and injury problems.

Amid this backdrop, an in-form Arsenal side are unsurprisingly 1.64 to win this encounter, with the draw on offer at 4.2. Forest, meanwhile, can be backed at 6.8.

Forest in difficulty

Nottingham Forest open their FA Cup campaign with the target of reaching the fourth round in successive years for the first time since 2004-05.

This clash, though, comes at a difficult time for them. Not only have they lost back-to-back fixtures against rivals Middlesbrough and Huddersfield, leaving them handicapped in the race to reach the playoffs, they also post chronic selection issues that will leave question marks over the starting XI of manager Steve Cooper until the last minute.

An upset, though, is not without precedent. In 2018, Forest beat Arsenal 4-2 at the City Ground at this stage in the competition, coincidentally the only time in the past 25 years that the Gunners have failed to negotiate this round of the Cup.

Gunners firing on all cylinders

Arsenal’s form is in contrast to that of their opponents. Although a five-match winning streak was stopped last weekend by Manchester City, they impressed in a 2-1 loss and felt a sense of grievance at the outcome.

Moreover, their recent record against Forest is good, winning five of the last six fixtures between the clubs. Indeed, the last meeting was a 5-0 win in the League Cup in September 2019.

One minor point of concern is their away record this season. They have lost five of their 10 Premier League road games, albeit Manchester City, Liverpool and Manchester United account for three of these.

Manager Mikel Arteta, meanwhile, is planning for a hectic fortnight of fixtures given that Thursday’s EFL Cup match with Liverpool was postponed. Having won the FA Cup in 2020, the Spaniard knows how to juggle his squad in these situations, though.

Arsenal to win, Smith Rowe to shine

Arsenal have played eight FA Cup fixtures previously under Arteta and have failed to score more than two goals in any individual game. Given the context of this match, it would be little surprise to see that trend continue.

This is a game likely to produce two or three goals but backing Arsenal on the nose looks the way forward.

One man who will be desperate to make his mark on the match is Emile Smith Rowe. Despite being benched in the last four Premier League matches, the midfielder has three goals to his credit. Odds of 8.2 on him netting the opening goal are enticing, while 3.95 for him to net anytime is also generous.

Recommended Bets:

Arsenal to win @ 1.64
Anytime Goalscorer: Emile Smith Rowe @ 3.95