EFL Cup semi-final tips: goals at the Emirates, fewer at the Bridge

Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur

Wednesday 5 December, 7.45pm

Antonio Conte returns to Stamford Bridge on Wednesday, as Tottenham take on his former club Chelsea in the first leg of the EFL Cup semi-finals. 

Conte has made a fine start to life as Spurs boss, steering his new side to five wins from his first eight Premier League matches at the helm. Tottenham are right back in the top four race and they now have their sights set on silverware in English football's secondary cup competition.

Sours have improved at both ends of the pitch under Conte. They were overly negative under Nuno Espirito Santo and now show much more attacking intent. They also look more secure with a three-man backline and have kept clean sheets in three of their last five Premier League outings. 

Conte will instruct his team to keep things tight at the back in the opening stages of Wednesday's game. Since there is a second leg to come, neither team will want to over-commit in the first half - that's why 2.84 on 0-0 at half-time looks like good value.

Things could also be tight after the break, particularly if Chelsea are again without Romelu Lukaku. There have been under 2.5 goals in three of their last five league games, and that looks like a decent bet here at 1.89.

Antonio Conte takes Tottenham to his former club Chelsea on Wednesday night

Arsenal vs Liverpool

Thursday 6 December, 7.45pm

There's reason to believe this week's second semi-final could be more open and entertaining. Arsenal felt hard done by in their 2-1 defeat by Manchester City last time out, but they were able to take positives from their performance against the champions.

Mikel Arteta's team look dynamic and vibrant all of a sudden, and an attacking unit comprising Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, Gabriel Martinelli and Alex Lacazette contains plenty of goals. Arsenal have scored at least twice in five of their last six games and could easily have done so against City on Saturday.

Liverpool, meanwhile, have shown signs of vulnerability at the back of late. They conceded chances aplenty to both Tottenham and Chelsea in 2-2 draws away from home, and they're without a clean sheet in four league games. With that in mind, an Arsenal win and both teams to score could be worth a punt at 4.1.

If there is an early goal at either end, it will only encourage the other team to attack. Our traders price over 3.5 goals at 2.6, which looks an astute choice.

Recommended bets

Arsenal vs Liverpool: Over 3.5 goals at 2.6

Arsenal vs Liverpool: Arsenal to win and both teams to score at 4.1

Chelsea vs Tottenham: 0-0 at half-time at 2.84

Chelsea vs Tottenham: Under 2.5 goals at 1.89