Champions League: Why Man City will have too much for Atletico Madrid

De Bruyne has City in control

Manchester City travel to Atletico Madrid on Wednesday for the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final encounter against Diego Simeone’s side.

A solitary goal from Kevin De Bruyne is the difference between the clubs after the opening fixture, which saw City dominate but their opponents defend resolutely in a 1-0 success for the Premier League side.

It’s all to play for in Spain, with City 1.84 favourites to pick up a second victory. A draw is on offer at 3.6 while Atleti can be backed at 5.0 to win in 90 minutes.

Atleti aiming to end long winless run at home

Prior to last Tuesday’s match in Manchester, Atletico Madrid seemed to have rediscovered their form after an unusually inconsistent season. They had strung together a run of six successive victories, including a typically astute 1-0 victory against Manchester United at Old Trafford that set up this quarter-final.

However, after going down by a single goal at the Etihad Stadium, they followed that up with a lacklustre 1-0 defeat to struggling Real Mallorca in La Liga at the weekend, leaving them fourth in the standings and facing a battle to reach the Champions League next term.

It was clear their minds were focused on this return match. While they have won their last five at home in La Liga, they have remarkably failed to win any of their previous seven home fixtures in the Champions League dating back to October 2020 – a run that needs to end if they are to progress.

City at ease on their travels

Manchester City, meanwhile, took a step towards another Premier League title with a 2-2 draw against Liverpool, though there was some disappointment they were not better able to capitalise on a strong first-half display in which they scored twice.

The challenge of picking up a positive result on the road is not one that will faze City. Indeed, they are undefeated on their travels since losing to RB Leipzig 2-1 in December and are 15 without a loss away from home in the Premier League.

However, Pep Guardiola's side have won just three of their previous 11 trips to face Spanish opponents in European football, although they did win 2-1 on their last visit to the country, beating Real Madrid at the Bernabeu in 2020.

City to ease through

Manchester City should have too much for Atletico Madrid in this game, despite the habit Simeone has of getting things tactically right in such games.

The balance of the tie plays into City’s hands and at some point Atleti may be forced to get out of their comfort zone and play in a more attacking manner. Given the Spanish side’s wretched home record in the competition and City’s apparent comfort when travelling, an away win is on the cards.

Given the home side’s need for victory, backing over 2.5 goals at 2.04 is worth some consideration, too, particularly given that this would have been a winner in five of Atleti’s last six at home.

Recommended bet

Manchester City @ 1.84