Champions League: Liverpool can edge Inter at the San Siro

Inter Milan versus Liverpool has strong claims of being the best clash in the Round of 16 in this year’s Champions League. Liverpool, who recorded a sixth win in this competition in 2018-19 at the hands of Tottenham Hotspur, currently sit third in the outright market at 6.4 and remain in firm chase of Manchester City in an exhilarating Premier League season.

It’s a similar story for Inter, who are embroiled in a battle with rivals AC Milan in Serie A and remain in the hunt for a fourth Champions League win after successes in 1964, 1965 and 2010. Outright odds of 55 suggest this may not be their year, but they were similar underdogs 12 years ago.

Surprisingly, these two teams have only faced each other on four occasions in Champions League history. Inter beat Liverpool 4-3 on aggregate in the 1964 semi-finals en route to winning the trophy, while Liverpool gained revenge in 2008 by winning home and away for a 3-0 aggregate win. Who will take the lead in the rivalry?

Defensive focus can help Reds

When the Champions League draw had finished on August 26, 2020, there was a strong feeling that Group B would provide most of the thrills and spills - some even labelled it the ‘Group of Death’. Four months later Liverpool made those claims look amateurish. 

Jurgen Klopp’s side made lightwork of Atletico Madrid, FC Porto and AC Milan by winning all six of their group stage games, scoring 17 goals in the process. Only two other teams (Bayern and Ajax) boasted a similarly impeccable record this season. But, despite the full-time results suggesting outright dominance, Liverpool’s lax defensive structure resulted in them conceding in four of the six matches.

However, with a new year comes a new side and Klopp’s focus has been firmly shifted to keeping clean sheets domestically, which has been achieved in five of Liverpool’s last seven matches. That streak may continue against a hit-and-miss Inter side, who failed to score in three of their six Champions League group stage matchups. 

Lack of creativity could be the downfall

This isn’t Inter Milan’s first rodeo, by any stretch of the imagination. Simone Inzaghi’s side, who made their European debut in the early 1960s, has been a mainstay in the Champions League since the turn of the century and shocked the world with their 2–0 defeat of Bayern Munich in the 2009-10 final. They haven’t progressed anywhere near that far since, but domestic success has led to increased hopes this year.

Currently second in Serie A and fresh off the back of a creditable 1-1 draw away to Napoli, Inter Milan will look to step forward from an average group stage qualification. Just three wins from six games led to the ‘blue and blacks’ securing second place behind Real Madrid, but given lowly-ranked Shakhtar Donetsk and Sheriff Tiraspol completed the group, better was undoubtedly expected.

A feature of their qualifying matches was a lack of goals, for and against. In fact, just 13 goals were scored in their six group games. A solid defensive structure has taken them this far, but the failure to create clear-cut chances may be their long-term downfall.

Players should watch their step

Polish referee Szymon Marciniak is set to take charge of his fifth Champions League game this season - and his second that has featured Liverpool. The 41-year-old oversaw the reds’ 3-2 victory over AC Milan at Anfield in September, in which he dished out three yellow cards and awarded a penalty in a tasty encounter.

Marciniak is known for regularly reaching into his front pocket and dishing out a caution. In fact, in his four Champions League games this year he has given 15 yellows (average of 3.75 per game). Add to that a further 61 yellows from 14 games (avg 4.35) in the Polish Ekstraklasa and it’s likely that a few names will be going into his black book on Wednesday.

Given the desire to get off to the perfect start in the knockout stages, a tense and well-contested first leg could result in Marciniak brandishing the yellow card more than usual. As a result, Over 4.5 cards looks like a tasty play in a largely underused market. 

Recommended bets

Liverpool to win and both teams not to score @ 4.3
Liverpool to win 1-0 @ 11
Over 4.5 cards @ 2.12