Champions League: how Liverpool can overcome stern Benfica examination

Reds second favourites

Liverpool travel to Benfica on Tuesday for the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final against Benfica.

Jurgen Klopp’s side have progressed to the final eight of the competition without any problems and are rated as a 29% shot to go all the way and win the trophy. Only Manchester City are considered to have a better chance.

More immediately, Liverpool are heavy favourites to take an advantage back to Anfield for the second leg. They are priced as 1.41, with a draw on offer at 5.2. Benfica’s outsider status in this tie is underlined by their price of 9.4.

Benfica searching for form

Benfica have endured a disappointing season by their expectations domestically. They sit third in Portugal’s top flight and have already played themselves out of any title chance. On Friday, they suffered another setback as they lost 3-2 in Braga, though the quick return after international duty complicated their preparations.

In Europe, their undoubted highlight was a 3-0 win over Barcelona in Group E back in September. They also impressed in sneaking a 1-0 win over Ajax three weeks ago, but they have only won four of their 10 fixtures to reach this juncture.

Benfica do, however, carry a significant goal threat. Despite being off the pace at home, no club can match the 70 goals they have scored in the league and in Darwin Nunez, who has 27 goals to his credit in just 34 matches this season, they have one of the summer’s hottest transfer properties in their ranks.

Liverpool juggernaut goes on

Liverpool, meanwhile, look close to unstoppable presently. There was, of course, that shock 1-0 loss at home to Inter in the last 16, but they have responded by winning four successive matches, including three on the road.

Indeed, Klopp’s men have barely missed a beat for months. Other than Inter, only Chelsea have stopped them from winning in 90 minutes since the beginning of 2022, and though their spectacular offensive run might have dried up to some extent, they are now not conceding goals.

Remarkably, they have lost for of their last five against Benfica, but this will be the clubs’ first meeting since the Reds won 4-1 at Anfield in a Europa League quarter-final in 2010.

Virgil van Dijk has been in fine form lately in Liverpool's defence

Clean sheet on the cards

Everything points to a Liverpool victory in this match. The Reds have already travelled successfully to Portugal this season, defeating a Porto side superior to this Benfica, 5-1 in September. They have also won all four of their previous away trips in the Champions League.

Nevertheless, they have failed to score more than two goals in a single match in the last eight, so backing them to score Under 2.5 appears logical, especially as Benfica looked well organised against Ajax.

Equally, backing against both teams to score at 1.98 holds some promise too. After all, this would be a winning bet in seven of Benfica’s 10 Champions League fixtures this season, as well as eight of the last nine Liverpool games.

Recommended bets

Liverpool to score under 2.5 @ 1.6

Both teams to score? No @ 1.98