Champions League: back goals in Atletico vs United

Three in a row?

Manchester United travel to Atletico Madrid on Wednesday for the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie off the back of successive wins over Brighton and Leeds.

It is just the second time in Ralf Rangnick’s temporary charge that United have won successive fixtures – and they have yet to record three-in-a-row.

Man Utd are 3.2 to break that duck at the Wanda Metropolitano, where Atleti are 2.42 favourites to get the win. A draw is on offer at 3.3.

New-look Atleti

Atletico Madrid come into this fixture with the greater Champions League pedigree in recent years, though they have failed to progress past the last 16 since a semi-final appearance in 2016-17.

The notoriously pragmatic Diego Simeone has tried to evolve his squad this season into a more attacking side, but the Argentine has struggled to achieve his target. Atleti will relinquish the Spanish title that they won last season and are in the midst of a streak that has seen them lose four of seven. 

After a stunning 1-0 loss a week ago at home against bottom side Levante, they bounced back with a 3-0 win over Osasuna at the weekend.

Atletico's Angel Correa is the leading scorer in Europe's top five divisions in 2022

Rediscovering their devil?

Manchester United’s difficult campaign needs little recap. Like Atleti, they are battling simply to reach the Champions League next season via a top-four finish in their domestic league, but have at least shown a little more form in recent weeks.

In Europe, meanwhile, progress was made in relative serene style in a group containing Young Boys, Villarreal and Atalanta. Despite losing their opening game in Switzerland, they progressed with a game to spare. 

Cristiano Ronaldo has been their talisman in the Champions League, showing his knack of scoring big goals at key times. He scored six times in the group stage in total, netting in all of the five games he played. Of late, though, the Portuguese has endured a comparative lean spell. Although a six-match streak without scoring ended against Brighton, he was mute against Leeds. 

Value on goals

Rip up Simeone’s traditional formbook prior to this match because this Atleti side are like nothing he has coached over the last decade. Seven of their last 10 matches in La Liga have produced at least three goals. With Man Utd also showing signs of being more open in recent times, odds of 2.24 for Over 2.5 goals offer interesting value.

Similarly, both teams to score at 1.92 looks a good price and offers some form of insurance if the game reverts to a more traditional Simeone style.

All the value in the goalscorer market, meanwhile, is on Angel Correa. He is not the most storied player on the field but no player in Europe’s ‘Big Five’ leagues has scored more goals in 2022. At 4.1, he offers excellent value to score at anytime.   

Recommended bets:

Over 2.5 goals @ 2.24
Angel Correa anytime @ 4.10