World Series Preview: Houston Astros should prove too strong for Phillies

Sam Cox

28 October 2022

The 2022 World Series will be contested by the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros, who are undisputed favourites to lift the Commissioner’s Trophy after winning the American League West title.

However, this is the third time the Astros have faced a National League East opponent in the Fall Classic in the last four years. They lost on both previous occasions - to the Nationals and Braves in 2019 and 2021 respectively. But, after going unbeaten in the playoffs, surely it’s a case of third-time lucky?

Philadelphia have defied the odds to make it this far after recovering from a 21-29 start to the season. They changed manager midway through the campaign and saw off the Cardinals, Braves and Padres to get to the World Series. A homer-hitting offence and some superb starting pitching has powered the Phillies on this improbable run after they ended an 11-year post-season drought.

Houston’s Pitching Advantage

Zack Wheeler has been spectacular for Philadelphia, giving up just five earned runs in over 25 innings, while Aaron Nola was just as dominant until a poor outing against the Padres in the NLCS. Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez has a 2.00 ERA over nine innings, both as a starter and reliever.

Philadelphia’s rotation has been good, but Houston’s has been even better. The Astros have a team ERA of just 1.88 over 72 innings, striking out 89 in the process. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier all shutdown the Yankees in their respective ALCS starts. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers combined for 11 innings of shutout ball in the 18-inning win to clinch the ALDS over the Mariners.

A stacked starting staff has been backed up by a dominant bullpen for the Astros, with just three earned runs from their relievers in the playoffs. The Phillies’ relief corps has improved, but there have still been slip ups, with a 3.19 ERA.

High-Powered Offences

Of all teams to make it past the wildcard round, the Phillies and Astros are first and second respectively in postseason OPS. Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber all had multiple homers in the ALCS, but Harper in particular has starred in this postseason, with 12.9% championship win probability added.

Houston has its own left-handed slugger to compete with Harper, though, in the shape of Yordan Alvarez - with 12.8% of championship win probability added. The Astros are waiting for Jose Altuve to join the party, but the rest of their big bats have already delivered in this postseason.

Both sides ranked in the top six in ISO during the regular season, meaning each of these two offences possess elite power up and down their line ups. Houston has a more diverse offence thanks to their low strikeout rate, but they are still clearly dependent on the long ball.

More Rounded Roster

There will be great pitching on show here from both ball clubs. Philadelphia’s line-up has been scorching throughout the playoffs - the Blue Jays were the only playoff team with a better runs created per 27 outs.

Getting hot at the right time is sometimes the key in the postseason, but it is still impossible to look past the Astros in this series. Houston is a 106-win juggernaut, and boasts far superior pitching, which should make the difference in a long series.

There is greater trust in the Astros bullpen and their line-up is every bit as dangerous as Philadelphia’s. While the Phils should get a win or two behind Wheeler and Nola, Houston has the greater talent in all departments and a bucketload of World Series experience.