Eurovision 2024: Melodifestivalen 2024 betting preview

Following their victory last year, Sweden will choose its Eurovision host entry this Saturday as Melodifestivalen draws to a close.

Last year’s runners-up Marcus & Martinus currently lead the market as heavy favourites at an 83% chance (best price 1.18 at time of writing). Heat five, which saw the twins compete, drew in the most votes of any this year, which is usually a strong indicator of success. All of the last four televote winners originated in the semi-final in which the most votes were cast.

Given M&M’s likely top two jury finish (only Loreen beat them last year), they should be headed towards a comfortable victory on Saturday evening.

Jacqline falls in second at just a 5% chance of winning, but is a much more appealing 2.8 in the ‘w/o Marcus & Martinus’ market. That market is still fairly wide so the back price may end up over 3.0, but it really ought to be somewhere around 2.0. Jacqline has been rewarded with a very generous running order slot of 11 and is racking up respectable streaming numbers (sixth of the finalists on Spotify yesterday), so she may well round out the televote top three behind the twins and Medina thanks to a ‘debut bonus’. ‘Effortless’ is a slickly-staged, radio-friendly package which has jury runner-up written all over it (see Liamoo 2022, Eric Saade 2021). Strong support on both sides of the vote will likely see Jacqline as the top-performing challenger.

Cazzi Opeia (best price 3.85) has to be the pick for last place this year. At third in the running order, ninth on streams and as a heat runner-up, she is unlikely to pick up more than a couple of points from most age groups, so expect a televote score around the 20-point mark. Opeia also finished second from last with the jury in 2022 with a stronger entry, so I cannot see ‘Give My Heart a Break’ beating the 26 jury points she picked up last time around. Last place is often hard to predict as a random high score from a national jury can easily switch up the rankings, but this should probably be trading in the 2.5–3.0 range.

Predictions

Televote

Marcus & Martinus: 70–90 pts

Medina: 50–65 pts

Jacqline: 45–60 pts

Jury

Marcus & Martinus: 60–80 pts

Jacqline: 60–75 pts

Liamoo: 45–60 pts

Tips

Winner w/o Marcus & Martinus: Jacqline @ 2.8

Last place: Cazzi Opeia @ 3.85

Liamoo vs Maria Sur: Liamoo @ 1.85