Eurovision 2023: Norway Melodi Grand Prix final preview

Norway’s Melodi Grand Prix has a somewhat opaque new format this year which, combined with a vulnerable market favourite, makes for an exciting opportunity for bettors.

Two songs have absolutely dominated in the domestic streaming battle — Jone’s ‘Ekko inni meg’ and Alessandra Mele’s ‘Queen of Kings’ both sit in Norway’s Spotify chart top five with more than four times the number of streams of any other competitor. 

I would not be wholly surprised if these two ended up recording 50% of the public vote between them, but Jone’s sacrificial position as show opener and Alessandra being given the so-called pimp slot demonstrates where the producers’ loyalties lie and who will likely go on to top the public poll. Based on streaming numbers and running order, we’re probably looking at Ulrikke and Atle Pettersen rounding out the televote top four.

This year, the televote makes up just half the points with NRK opting to reintroduce national juries into the mix. While the broadcaster has been tight-lipped about the actual format, it seems reasonable to assume that juries will allocate points on a similar scale to Eurovision, whereas the televote will be distributed proportionally to the number of votes each entry receives. In such a case, the televote would wield much more power — 20–25% of the vote (easily achievable for a televote winner) would be the equivalent of getting 12s from all jurors.

Odds-on favourite Ulrikke is likely to face a televote deficit, which will need to be made up by the juries. She only narrowly won in a televote-only final in 2020, and performing fourth out of nine on Friday will make it hard to match the televote haul that Alessandra and Jone will be aiming for. 

Even if Ulrikke tops the jury vote, though, ‘Honestly’ doesn’t look like a runaway winner with the so-called music experts. If anything, Atle Pettersen’s entry actually seems like a more jury-friendly package and could compete with her for the top spot. Both songs are by-the-numbers and traverse familiar ground, but Pettersen sells his with a bit more authenticity, which jurors should reward.

The juries will probably reveal their points first, and Ulrikke will need a pretty hefty score to see off the televote competition from ‘Queen of Kings’. If the latter cracks the jury’s top four and Ulrikke fails to rack up a big lead, it will be advantage Alessandra.

Alessandra Mele is the value bet here at a best-priced 2.78. For what it’s worth, I also had a speculative bet on Atle Pettersen last weekend at around 20, but he’s now trading in mid-single figures, which I wouldn’t take. ‘Masterpiece’ seems like the most likely ‘surprise’ winner, but if I’m backing an outsider like that in the hope it wins the jury vote, I’d want double-figure odds.

Norway: Melodi Grand Prix Prediction

Back Alessandra Mele @ 2.78