Wimbledon Women’s Singles 2023 Predictions: Aryna Sabalenka favoured over Iga Swiatek

A look down the Wimbledon ladies’ singles roll of honour over the last 25 years proves that the title usually goes to a player very much at home on grass.

While that’s not exactly surprising, the reason I’m bringing attention to it is that so many of the game’s big names these days do not have the best relationship with the surface. Prime among them is Iga Swiatek, the current world number one.

The Pole arrives off the back of a third French Open title in four years but, while she may be the queen of clay, Swiatek is yet to go beyond the last 16 at Wimbledon where the grass gives her less time to line up the accurate, punishing groundstrokes which have dismantled so many on the red dirt.

A strong serve can make a big difference on this surface, but Swiatek isn’t the biggest and she won’t get the number of cheap points that some of her rivals will. In short, I’m happy to lay the top seed at around the 4.8 mark.

Who can take advantage if Swiatek slips up?

Swiatek is one of three players who have dominated women’s tennis in 2023 - the others being Aryna Sabalenka and defending champion Elena Rybakina.

In contrast to Swiatek, the pair have two of the strongest serves in the game. However, it’s hard to be confident about Rybakina’s chances given her muddled preparation. She was forced out of the French Open mid-tournament with a virus, one which is still bothering her almost a month later, and she withdrew from Bad Homburg this week saying the illness had been “really tough”.

As a result, Sabalenka looks the best pick from the leading contenders, as long as you are prepared to dismiss the chances of a hangover from her French Open semi-final defeat from match point up.

The Australian Open champion made the last four here on her last appearance two years ago and, returning as a Grand Slam winner, she can take another step forward this time around with her big-hitting game capable of blasting all-comers off the court.

Where should you look for an outsider?

It’s worth noting the results of the warm-up event in Berlin, one which last year was won by eventual Wimbledon finalist Ons Jabeur.

This year’s champion was Petra Kvitova, who is already twice a winner in SW19, although her most recent success came back in 2014. However, runner-up Donna Vekic is of more interest.

She’s twice won on grass in Nottingham and has also reached the final in Birmingham in the past. Last week she took out Rybakina and Maria Sakkari and, while she’s yet to go past round four at this tournament, that feels like a bit of an anomaly given her surface record.

Finally, Tatjana Maria is worth a try at huge odds. She was a surprise package at Wimbledon 2022, where she stormed through to the semi-finals, but has long known how to play on grass given she won in Mallorca back in 2018.

The slice remains a key shot on this surface and few do it better than Maria, so I can’t overlook her at a huge triple-digit price.

Wimbledon Ladies’ Singles Predictions

Lay Iga Swiatek @ 4.8
Back Aryna Sabalenka @ 6.4
Back Donna Vekic @ 50
Back Tatjana Maria @ 500