Wimbledon men's singles: Djokovic clear favourite, but Robin Bairner has two outside selections

All eyes on SW19

The Wimbledon Championships mark one of the highlights of the tennis calendar, and even stripped of its ranking points this year, it promises to be a special event.

Novak Djokovic returns to the All England Club in London as the defending champion, having beaten Matteo Berrettini over four sets in the 2021 final. A strong challenge is expected to come from Rafael Nadal, who arrives in London battered and bruised but with each of the year’s first two majors in his back pocket. Inevitably, talk has started to drift towards an unlikely Grand Slam.

Or perhaps there will be a new champion to end the iron grip that the Big 4 – Roger Federer and Andy Murray included – have had on the trophy since 2003.

The big favourites

Top seed Novak Djokovic arrives at Wimbledon the undoubted king of the grass court. The Serb has won The Championships on each of the last three occasions it has taken place – it was cancelled due to Covid in 2020 – and on six occasions overall. 

The 35-year-old is the hot favourite to add to his titles, with traders backing him at 1.93 to take a fourth successive crown. Counting against him will be a lack of competitive tennis on grass, with Djokovic not having played since losing the French Open semi-final to Nadal. Still, he should have a chance to play himself into form with a relatively kind draw. 

Nadal is the No.2 seed and so cannot face Djokovic until the final. He confounded the odds to win both the Australia and French Open titles, claiming the second despite receiving injections for a foot injury. Grand Slam fever may be building around the Spaniard, but he is in the tougher half of the draw and considered a 9.8 shot to make it three from three in majors this year. 

The other big favourite is Matteo Berrettini. Unlike Djokovic and Nadal, he has been playing competitive grass court tennis – and he has been doing it very well. Victories in Stuttgart and at Queen’s suggest that at 7.4, there could be value in backing last year’s beaten finalist. 

Rafael Nadal comes into Wimbledon having won the first two Grand Slam titles of the year in Australia and France

Murray revival? 

What of two-time champions Andy Murray, then? His preparations for Wimbledon have been distinctly mixed. He impressed in Stuttgart as he made it all the way to the final before severely testing Berrettini to go down in four sets. However, he picked up an injury along the way that forced him to pull out of Queen’s. 

Nevertheless, he is a legitimate sleeper pick following his performances in Germany, which included a straight-sets victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas.

A lack of conditioning counts against the Scotsman, while he has also been handed a draw fraught with difficulty. Big-server James Duckworth is up first, could be followed by the bigger-serving John Isner and then potentially the dangerous Jannik Sinner all before the fourth round. At 75, though, he will tempt some. 

Who’s best of the rest? 

Of the rest of the field, Poland’s Hubert Hurkacz is worth keeping an eye on after he won Halle. His run in Germany was particularly impressive as it saw him take out Felix Auger-Alisassime, who himself beat Nadal in an exhibition this week, as well as Nick Kyrgios and Daniil Medvedev, who of course will not be present at Wimbledon due to the ban on Russian and Belarusian players. At 16.5, he appears to carry some legitimate value.

In terms of the other Top 10 players who are in the draw, Tsitsipas has only once been beyond the first round at Wimbledon so can be pretty safely discounted, while Casper Ruud, the French Open finalist, is not at home on grass and has yet to win here. Carlos Alcaraz’s visit last season was extremely brief. A lack of warm-up matches counts against the prodigious Spaniard, too. 

For a real outside pick, look no further than 25-year-old Dutchman Tim van Rijthoven, who comes into the tournament after winning in s’Hertogenbosch a fortnight ago. During that run, he beat Medvedev, Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz, the top three seeds. He is priced at 270 and has been given a wildcard. Given his form, he looks better value than many shorter-priced players. 

Recommended bets

Novak Djokovic @ 1.93

Hubert Hurkacz @ 16.5