Wimbledon Ladies’ Singles Final Prediction: Ons Jabeur can claim the title from behind

Andy Schooler

14 July 2023

Ons Jabeur looks the right favourite in Saturday’s Wimbledon ladies’ singles final against Marketa Vondrousova. but the match might be closer than the market suggests.

Jabeur is the higher-ranked, more experienced player and she’s clearly in fine form having beaten three top-10 players en route to this match. Her defeated foes include two of the season’s top three players in Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka.

Still, she’s had her problems against Vondrousova – and left-handers in general. Her career win percentage against lefties is 61%, as opposed to 64% against right-handed opponents. As for this particular foe, the Czech has won both meetings in 2023.

To be fair, Jabeur had some injury problems at the time – she had surgery after her Australian Open defeat and had only just returned when they met in Indian Wells – and overall their head-to-head record stands at 3-3.

Across those matches, each player has won 42% of points on return, Vondrousova being slightly better at winning points on her opponent’s second serve and Jabeur better in the first-serve category.

Such statistics suggest this will be tight, just as their only previous meeting on grass – in Eastbourne in 2021 – was. On that occasion, Jabeur won 6-3 7-6 in a match that featured just one break of serve.

Nerves will probably guarantee there are more in this contest – both players are seeking their maiden Grand Slam title having lost in previous finals, Vondrousova once, Jabeur twice, including here 12 months ago. In that final, Rybakina came from a set down to win and backing a similar momentum swing in this one may be where the value lies.

Jabeur has come from behind to win in three of the six rounds so far with her dogged determination shining through. Her 2022 Stuttgart win over Vondrousova also came via this method. Jabeur to win from behind is on offer at 6.4 here which looks to have some value added to it.

She’ll have the majority of the crowd support so she’ll be willed on if she does fall behind, as was the case against Sabalenka in a high-quality semi-final. In that match, Jabeur showed her combination of ground power and delicate touch.

Vondrousova will also look to mix things up here with her drop shots and slices and will be able to cause some problems. Her confidence is flying after her surprise run, on which has more than doubled her career grass court wins tally – she has won just one match at Wimbledon in four visits prior to this year.

But Jabeur is the higher-ranked player for a reason and I feel she’ll be that bit better in most departments. While not totally convinced in her at 1.51, let’s take a bigger-priced punt and back her to win from behind again.