French Open Women's Singles Final Betting Tips: Can Paolini stop Swiatek becoming one of the greats

Andy Schooler previews the French Open women’s singles final and expects Iga Swiatek to put her name in the pantheon of clay court greats with something to spare.

Iga Swiatek stands on the cusp of greatness – and it will take a huge shock to stop her writing her name alongside the legends of Roland Garros.

Only Chris Evert, Steffi Graf and Justine Henin have won the French Open women’s title on four occasions in tennis’ Open Era but Swiatek now sits just one match from joining them.

Jasmine Paolini is the player who stands in her way but the Italian will be contesting her first Grand Slam final and we’ve often seen in the past how a maiden finalist can fail to deliver their best on that big occasion.

The 12th seed - an 11.0 shot - admitted she was “so nervous” prior to and during Thursday’s semi-final and it’s hard to imagine things are going to get any easier on that front.

On the other side of the net, Swiatek has been there and done it all before – this will be her fifth Grand Slam final in total. She’s won the previous four and is just 1.23 to win this one in straight sets.

Her demeanour in the press after the semi-finals smacked of a player still with plenty of work to do and it contrasted wildly with Paolini’s smiles, who gave off vibes that she was simply happy to make the final.

Paolini went unbroken during her semi-final but Mirra Andreeva offered little – it was an error-strewn performance from the Russian and it’s pretty much guaranteed that Swiatek will not be handing out such gifts.

She’ll need to serve well again to stand a chance in this one and while she does possess a decent kick-serve, I fear for her on her second serve.

Swiatek demolished Coco Gauff’s second deal on Thursday, winning 68% of points on it. In contrast, her own second serve stood up well as she won 67% of points behind it.

The Paolini serve has got the treatment in the pair’s two previous meetings – she’s won just three games in both, albeit the most recent was in 2022.

The Italian has certainly improved since then, although you still have to feel that Swiatek does everything that bit better.

Since staring down match point against Naomi Osaka in round two, Swiatek has brutalised opponents and I just don’t see how she loses this match. It would certainly take a brave punter to lay her.

The question is how to back her.

For me, the answer is on the first-set game handicap.

Swiatek is 2.08 giving up a 3.5-game start, meaning she’ll need to win the opener 6-2, 6-1 or 6-0.

That looks perfectly plausible.

She’s managed it in four of the six rounds of this tournament, including the last three during which Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova and US Open queen Gauff have both been in opposition.

If the fifth and third seeds could get that treatment, so can a nervous 12th seed playing in the biggest match of her life.

French Open Women’s Singles Final Prediction

Back Iga Swiatek (-3.5) to win the first set on the game handicap @ 2.08