Australian Open Men's Final Betting Tips & Preview: Medvedev's experience to lead him to victory

Andy Schooler

26 January 2024

Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s Australian Open men’s singles final between his pre-tournament pick, Jannik Sinner, and Daniil Medvedev.

So, Jannik Sinner, our outright pre-tournament selection, has made it to the Australian Open final.

Some will feel the hard work has been done after the Italian toppled 10-time king of Melbourne Park, Novak Djokovic, in Friday’s semi-finals.

But such thinking would be folly.

Daniil Medvedev still stands between Sinner, a player long tipped for success at the highest level, and his maiden Grand Slam title.

The Russian leads the pair’s head-to-head 6-3, which shows the danger he’ll pose, although Sinner has won the last three, suggesting that perhaps the tide has turned.

However, in the match-win market, I am surprised to see Medvedev up at 3.45.

A lot of the thinking is that he’s exhausted having taken the scenic route to this final.

He’s already played 25 completed sets (another saw his opponent retire early in it) and so Sinner, whose only dropped set so far came against Djokovic, has to be the fresher.

Yet Medvedev’s powers of recovery are strong.

He put his four-hour, 3.39am finish behind him earlier in the tournament, coming out in the next round and easily dismissing Felix Auger-Aliassime in straight sets.

Doing that here will be much more difficult but I remain unconvinced by the argument that Medvedev’s legs will fail him in this contest.

They certainly didn’t against Alex Zverev in Friday’s semi-final when he came back from two sets down for the fourth time in his career to win.

Medvedev’s defensive skills were on full show in that one with Zverev unable to enjoy as much success in the long rallies as he did against Carlos Alcaraz in his surprise win of the previous round.

It’s fair to say Medvedev hasn’t played his best tennis at this tournament but he will bring greater experience to this final, which will be his sixth at Grand Slam level. In contrast, this will be Sinner’s first which clearly bring the potential for nerves to be a factor.

Sinner’s level has been the higher of the two but while any result gained against Djokovic should be considered a good one, the Serb was not good in that match, making way too many unforced errors and describing it as one of the worst Grand Slam matches of his career.

It may be that too much is being read into that victory for Sinner.

Look, the Italian is the right favourite and he will bring great confidence into this clash given the way he’s played in Melbourne and how he’s enjoyed recent meetings with Medvedev.

But I can’t help but feel there’s some value to be had in backing the Russian at the price, particularly if you are holding that betting slip on Sinner at 7.0 from a fortnight ago.

Australian Open Men’s Singles Final Predictions

Back Daniil Medvedev @ 3.45

Andy Schooler

26 January 2024

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