Thurston: 17 February by-election preview

For this week's featured local by-election, we are heading to the village of Thurston, just outside of Bury St Edmunds in Mid Suffolk. 

This by-election has been triggered by the resignation of a Green councillor. No story or scandal here, she has just moved out of the area. It looks as if she had a pretty substantial personal vote though, gaining 68% more votes than her fellow Green candidate on the ballot when this ward was last contested at the 2019 local elections.

As ever in these contests, the quality of the candidates and the resources being spent by the local parties will make a big difference. There isn't a whole lot of campaigning activity being reported on social media, although that isn't always a good reflection of what is actually happening on the ground.

The result here could make a small difference to the balance of power on Mid Sussex District Council. It is currently run by a Conservative/Independent administration who have to rely on a casting vote to get a majority, but they won't need that any more if the Tory candidate wins this one. Given the current national polling picture, it would be a bit of a surprise if they were to win, but the Conservative vote has held up a bit better than expected in a few recent local by-elections in other parts of the country.

The prices at Smarkets make the Greens around a 68% favourite to hold the seat. You can never totally rule out the Liberal Democrats in these contests but it's hard to see them Winning Here this time. The Labour candidate will have had a good result if he manages to avoid finishing last of the four runners.