Who will take over from Nicola Sturgeon as Scottish First Minister?

Angus Robertson has been quickly cemented as the market favourite to replace Nicola Sturgeon as Scottish First Minister after her surprise resignation announcement on 15 February.

Robertson, 54, is one of the more experienced contenders in the race, and currently sits at a 44% chance according to the market.

Kate Forbes has shortened since Sturgeon’s resignation and is now rated a 23% chance. While she has been lauded as a talented politician, her conservative views on abortion and trans rights put her in conflict with much of her party and would undoubtedly plague her early time in the job as leader of a nominally centre-left party.

Forbes would be relentlessly questioned by the media about her views, which looks like a PR disaster waiting to happen for the SNP, potentially also bringing into sharp focus internal divisions which have been rumbling over the last month or so.

There are a few other names in the mix at the moment. Deputy First Minister John Swinney is currently an 11% chance, Keith Brown is at 4% and Humza Yousaf rounds out the main contenders at 3%.

I’m not an expert on Scottish politics so I can’t profess to offer any solid tips on this market, but Kate Forbes seems like she would be a particularly bad electoral choice for maintaining the SNP’s coalition of generally socially-liberal voters. I don’t think SNP members would be foolish enough to risk the party’s dominance in Scotland by electing her.