Le Pen within striking distance

Voters don’t always behave in ways we expect. Anyone who has spent time campaigning on doorsteps in the UK will know they often hold contradictory viewpoints that aren’t easily resolved.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, many assumed Emmanuel Macron would benefit from a rally-round-the-flag effect and Marine Le Pen’s hopes of becoming president would be harmed by her historic links to Vladimir Putin. This held up for a while; on Smarkets, Macron’s re-election chance climbed from around 80% to over 90% and Le Pen fell to a low of just 3%. However, the momentum has now reversed, and voters are defying the pundits with Le Pen breathing down Macron’s neck in second round polling. One recent survey showed the far-right leader as high as 48.5% in a second round matchup against Macron.

Le Pen’s campaign has been successful. She has effectively managed to win voters’ trust on cost of living issues, taking a more interventionist approach than Macron and blaming the president for French reliance on Russian energy. Ironically, the presence of Éric Zemmour may also have helped the National Rally leader detoxify her brand, offering an even more extreme candidacy on the far-right and allowing Le Pen to appear the more moderate of the two.

In 2017, Macron was able to mobilise the anti-Le Pen vote beyond what the polls measured (his eventual margin was about 9 points higher than expected). While this may have been successful in 2017, the incumbent starts out from a much worse position this time round and when voters have been expecting a Macron-Le Pen rematch for five years, the anti-far-right vote may already be baked into the polls.

There is still some value in backing Le Pen at 5.6 (18%) on Smarkets.

Image of Marine Le Pen by Francois Lo Presti licensed under CC by 4.0.