Italian Presidential Election Preview

If you are looking for a unique political betting event, look no further. This month's election for a new Italian president is a fascinating contest which could easily produce a shock winner.

The electorate are 1,009 officials who include the members of the Italian Senate and Chamber of Deputies who get to cast secret ballots in a series of rounds until a winner emerges. The closest UK equivalent would be the election of a Commons' Speaker, which has been a fantastic betting contest in the past, most notably when John Bercow won in 2009. The other comparable electoral contest that springs to mind is that for a new Pope, which has also produced some big-priced winners (the current incumbent was a 25/1 shot before being elected in 2013).

The electors can vote for any Italian over the age of 50 and the process can take quite some time; in 1971 it took 23 rounds of voting before a majority was found. One can expect a few weeks of rumour and speculation running up to the 24 January polling date and anyone following the right experts on Twitter might be able to get an edge on the betting markets.

Silvio Berlusconi's interest in the position was undoubtedly the big story at the start of the process. It's not clear whether he could get the support of 50% of the lawmakers - the electoral system is more suited to a consensual candidate like the early front runner, current Prime Minister Mario Draghi. It has also been suggested, not unreasonably, that it might be time for Italy to have it's first female head of state; Minister of Justice Marta Cartabia looks a plausible option.