Hailsham South: 10 Feb by-election preview

There are only three local by-elections being held this week, and on first glance they all look like very likely wins for the Liberal Democrats. One that they already hold from 2021 in Eastleigh, another that they should take from second place behind an Independent in Somerset West, and this week's selection in Hailsham South on Wealden District Council. 

Hailsham is a few miles north of Eastbourne in East Sussex. The current council is Tory dominated, but this looks like a pretty good chance for a Lib Dem gain. The seat was last contested in another by-election in May 2021: Cons 411 - LD 332 - Ind 90 - Green 77. The winning Conservative councillor has since resigned for reasons unknown (to us at least). 

A swing of just over 4% should be fairly easy to achieve for the Liberal Democrats here given the national picture and the generally hostile news cycle that the Tories are experiencing. Their candidate, Anne Blake-Coggins, has run here twice before and the Smarkets' prices give her around a 75% chance of making it third time lucky.

A rare outing for the SDP here who might complicate things a bit for the Liberal Democrats if voters of a certain age think the parties are roughly equivalent. The SDP have changed quite a bit these days, as evidenced by the fact that their candidate here previously stood for the Brexit Party in Eastbourne at the 2019 general election, getting 2.8% of the vote. No Green candidate this time, which should help the Lib Dems.