2022 Local Elections - where are the best betting opportunities?

Smarkets hosted a 2022 local election preview panel on 27 April and here are a few insights that might help you find some betting opportunities.

Croydon

Both the newly created elected mayor and control of the council look competitive. Smarkets latest odds give Labour around a 70% chance of winning the mayoralty and an 80% chance of retaining control of the council. Esteemed local government expert Tony Travers felt that those odds over-estimated Labour's prospects. Tony made it clear that he's not betting on anything himself so I wouldn't call this a tip. Nevertheless, the Labour controlled council has been in some major financial difficulties and Boris Johnson made a point of mentioning that in PMQs this week, so perhaps we shouldn't be too surprised if the Tories do better than expected in Croydon.

Sutton

The Liberal Democrats have controlled the council here since 1986 but some good judges think it's just about possible their time may be up. Lewis Baston's preview is an excellent guide to the situation; the picture he paints would definitely lead you to think that a Liberal Democrat hold might not be as certain as the 85% chance implied by Smarkets latest odds. One statistical projection here forecasts that the Conservative will end up as the largest party but leave the council in No Overall Control. 

Tower Hamlets

The mayoral election in Tower Hamlets is extremely hard to call with the former mayor Lutfur Rahman returning from a six year ban from holding office to challenge the Labour incumbent John Biggs. John Rentoul of the Independent was on the panel and, as a resident of the borough, has been following it closely. He thinks Biggs is popular enough to hold on - currently a 55% chance at Smarkets. It's worth noting that these will be the last set of mayoral elections to use the supplementary vote. In the 2014 match up between the same two candidates, Biggs won 6,500 second round transfers to Rahman's 856. That wasn't enough to overturn Rahman's R1 lead and the election was subsequently voided by the courts anyway. Still, if this year's first round is very close you'd have to fancy Labour could win in the run-off.