The Littletons 13 January by-election preview

Only one local by-election this week, but it's an interesting one. There is a vacancy on the delightfully named The Littletons ward on Wychavon District Council. That's in Worcestershire, just outside of Evesham.

The Tories have held this seat for ten years, gaining it from the Liberal Democrats in 2011. The same councillor, Richard Lasota, had been in place for the Tories for that entire period before his death in September. No doubt he'll have built up a substantial personal vote and was chairman of the local football club.

The last time this ward was contested was at the local elections in 2019 with just two runners but a close result:

• 398 Conservatives
• 331 Green

The council is currently Tory dominated, but with representation for both the Liberal Democrats and Greens: 35 Cons, 6 LD, 2 Green, 1 Ind.

This time we've got three candidates standing:

• Mary Smith (Conservative)
• Hannah Robson (Green)
• David Quayle (Liberal Democrat)

If only one of the Lib Dems or Greens were standing, I would guess that candidate would have been a strong favourite to win. As it is, the Tories start off as favourites to hold the seat given there must be quite a strong chance that the opposition vote will be quite evenly split. The opening odds from Smarkets imply the following win chances; 69% Cons, 23% LD, 8% Green. I wouldn't be surprised to see some support for the Liberal Democrats following their shock win in last week's by-election in the Cavendish ward of Gedling District Council.