The Open: History awaits for McIlroy but winning will not be a walk in the park

Rory McIlroy makes little fuss of his relationship with Dr Bob Rotella but it’s clear it won’t be driving, putting or iron play that decides his destiny at St Andrews on Sunday. Instead, it will be the six inches between his ears.

“He simplifies things,” McIlroy said at the Country Club of Brookline during last month’s US Open of what he cleans from his relationship with the mental coach.

Rory's backwards habit

The County Down man has shown remarkable poise for the entire week at the Old Course to lead — albeit tied with Viktor Hovland — going into the final round of a Major for the first time since he won the US PGA in 2014.

But he did not like being questioned about his ability to finish off a major after an eight-year drought.

“I'm playing a golf tournament and I've got myself in a great position after three days,” he said. “I’ve finished off enough golf tournaments in my time to feel like I know what to do tomorrow.”

Recent history suggests that McIlroy does not thrive when in contention going into the final rounds of majors.

Yes, he finished second in the Masters in April, but he was ninth going out, 10 shots behind Scottie Scheffler, and closed with a 64 to finish three back after the current world number one four putted the last.

Since his fourth Major win at Kiawah Island eight years ago, he’s been in the top five going into the final round of Major three times and gone backwards in all but one.

When leading going into the final round of any event since 2014, he’s won seven of 13 events, meaning a win is far from a foregone conclusion.

We expect McIlroy to finish the job but his odds are so short - he is available at 1.97 - let’s look at his biggest threats.

Who are the threats?

Co-leader Hovland certainly does not believe a shootout with McIlroy is inevitable.

“There's a lot of things that can happen,” said Hovland, who has won three of the five tournaments he’s led going into the final round. “In these conditions and these pin placements, you can play fine and shoot around even-par, and then that brings in a lot of other guys as well.”

Scottie Scheffler remains in with a shot

McIlroy’s problem, even with a four-shot lead, is that the Old Course is vulnerable to a low score on Sunday given it has four driveable par-fours, two reachable par-fives and several other holes requiring short irons.

With a 63 or even a 62 possible, a player on 11-under or better could post a 20-under par target, forcing McIlroy or Hovland to shoot 67 to win.

Cameron Young, Cameron Smith, Si Woo Kim and Scottie Scheffler are all more than capable, while Dustin Johnson, who is six shots behind, is a player with the power to pose a Major question.

Recommended bets

Viktor Hovland @ 3

Cameron Smith @ 16

Scottie Scheffler @ 25

Dustin Johnson @ 75