Japanese Grand Prix Predictions: Lewis Hamilton can make the podium

Phillip Horton

5 October 2022

Formula One heads straight from Singapore to Japan for the second leg of the championship’s Asian stint.

Suzuka, a much-loved venue that joined the Formula One’s schedule in 1987 and was last visited in 2019, has provided some of the most iconic moments in motorsport history. Ayrton Senna and Alain Prost had two infamous title-deciding collisions during their tempestuous rivalry, while Damon Hill, Mika Häkkinen and Michael Schumacher all had tense championship-winning races on Japanese soil.

Suzuka’s greatness is elevated by the engrossing nature of the circuit. It is the only figure-of-eight layout on the schedule, and the narrow track features a swathe of fast and sweeping corners with little in the way of run-off, as it undulates its way around a tiny strip of land.

The event is also enhanced by some of the most passionate, yet unobtrusively respectful fans encountered anywhere on the calendar, with those who flock to Suzuka regularly creating original apparel and devices.

A strong track for Mercedes

Mercedes has dominated at Suzuka in Formula One’s turbo hybrid era by sweeping each race from 2014 to 2019 inclusive, though much has changed in the three years since such machinery graced Suzuka’s tarmac.

Only seven of the 20 drivers are still with the respective team they competed with in 2019, and four will be competing at Suzuka for the first time. However, it is a circuit that should – on paper at least – suit its recalcitrant W13.

Suzuka is a high-downforce circuit where Pirelli’s harder tyres are utilised, meaning it shares traits with the likes of Barcelona, Silverstone and Zandvoort, where Mercedes has been at its most competitive.

But unless Mercedes can get on top of its tyre warm-up issues for a qualifying lap then it may already start Sunday’s race from a compromised position. And, given the Saturday pace of Ferrari and Sunday superiority of Red Bull, there’s little evidence to suggest past 2022 form won’t be continued.

Could rain throw a spanner in the works?

Wet weather has been a frequent occurrence at Suzuka across the years and has plagued many sessions, consequently influencing the outcome of the events.

Indeed, a typhoon prompted all of Saturday’s action to be cancelled in advance during Formula One’s last visit to Japan in 2019, which left the sport to squeeze qualifying and the race into just one day.

At the time of writing, this year’s forecast appears sketchy too. Wet weather is likely on Friday, which will leave teams scrambling to find the optimum set-up window ahead of a Saturday qualifying session that is expected to take place in dry conditions.

Max Verstappen: can seal his title in Suzuka

The current indications are that further rainfall will strike an atypically cool Suzuka on Sunday, which will present teams and drivers with a stern challenge at a track where the margin for error is minimal.

Verstappen’s second match point

Whichever way you spin it, Max Verstappen undoubtedly enters the Japanese Grand Prix as favourite.

His winning streak was brought to a shuddering halt in Singapore but, even on a weekend in which he and Red Bull made numerous uncharacteristic errors, he still salvaged a respectable seventh.

Heading into Japan, he holds a lead of 104 points over Charles Leclerc and 106 over Sergio Perez. If that number stands at 112 or more come Sunday night then Verstappen will be assured of his second world title.