French Grand Prix: Red Bull wary as Ferrari look for hat-trick in France

Au revoir, France?

Formula 1 is returning to motor-racing’s spiritual home, France, potentially for the last foreseeable time.

The term ‘grand prix’ was coined in France and the first recognised motor-race took place in the country before the turn of the 20th century. 

France’s grand prix was revived only in 2018 after a decade-long absence, with Provencal Paul Ricard returning as the host venue for the first time since 1990.

The circuit, located on a plateau above the Riviera, is well known for its lurid striped blue-and-red run-off that slows cars and causes high wear to tyres. 

This year’s event is only the fourth at the current Paul Ricard iteration but the grand prix is out of contract after 2022.

As Formula 1 seeks new venues – with Qatar and Las Vegas included on a 2023 calendar that could feature China’s comeback – France is first in the firing line and unlikely to receive a new deal. 

Expect the expected

It is not a track that often throws up surprises. Paul Ricard is a relatively straightforward circuit for the drivers, with its expansive run-off, while its prior use as an extensive test facility means it tends to favour teams that have a strong all-round package.

It also means it rarely provides much of a set-up compromise compared to some circuits and that there is not a particular focus on one area of the car. 

Lewis Hamilton claimed comfortable back-to-back victories during title-winning campaigns in 2018 and 2019. Last year Max Verstappen beat the Briton during a tense denouement as their respective strategies converged, in a race that was reflective of their tightly-matched season-long title battle.  

It is also a race with a low rate of attrition, with all 20 starters reaching the chequered flag in 2021, while there was just one retirement in the preceding event in 2019. 

Lewis Hamilton was victorious at the Paul Ricard circuit in both 2018 and 2019, while Max Verstappen won there last year

The form guide

The first half of the season has delivered seven victories for Red Bull Racing, and four for Ferrari, with Mercedes playing catch-up.

Red Bull holds a title advantage but Ferrari enters France following back-to-back victories in Britain and Austria. It has been a close-run affair between the two teams at several grands prix this year with Leclerc eclipsing Verstappen by just 1.5 seconds in Austria. 

It could be a strong circuit for the improving Mercedes team, which is finally getting a handle on its W13. The fast, flowing and smooth Paul Ricard shares several characteristics with Silverstone, where Mercedes had its best outing so far in the 2022 campaign. 

Qualifying – in particular tyre warm-up – has been a weakness for Mercedes this year but that should be less of an issue at a high-energy circuit where hot weather is forecast. If the Silver Arrows can qualify higher up the grid then its race prospects will undoubtedly be enhanced. 

Home hopes

Elsewhere. France has two representatives on the grid courtesy of Alpine’s Esteban Ocon and AlphaTauri’s Pierre Gasly.

Both have a career victory but achieving such heights at Paul Ricard is improbable, with even a podium a far-fetched prospect. 

Ocon arrives off the back of a strong fifth in Austria, his best result of 2022, and replicating that on home turf would be an excellent result.

Gasly’s AlphaTauri team has struggled on aero-heavy circuits in 2022 and consequently creeping into the top 10 is likely to be the limit of his ambitions.  

Recommended bets

Verstappen @ 2.54

Hamilton podium @ 2.2