Nations League: 'There is value in bookings' - Robin Bairner on England vs Italy

England seek first win

England are seeking their first Nations League victory of the campaign on Saturday when they host Italy at Molineux. 

Of course, this is a repeat of the Euro 2020 final, which took place little under a year ago and was claimed by the Azzurri after a dramatic penalty shootout. 

England are warm 1.87 favourites to win the match, with Italy a 4.9 underdog. A repeat of the draw the teams played out in the European Championship is on offer at 3.65.

Tough start for England

It’s not been a happy start to the Nations League for England, who surprisingly lost in Hungary and then struggled to achieve a 1-1 draw against Germany on Tuesday. A late Harry Kane penalty salvaged a point in that encounter. 

Back on home turf, though, Gareth Southgate will be aiming for back-to-back victories against the Italians and Hungary to get his side back on track. They have not typically fared well in Nations League play, winning only one of their last five in the competition, and being shut out three times in that run. 

This is a complicated period in the international calendar, with four matches coming in quick succession, and accordingly, rotation in many international teams has been widespread. Southgate changed five starters between the Budapest loss and the Munich draw, and a similar turnover of players is expected again for this clash. 

England manager Gareth Southgate hasn't seen his side go three games without a win since 2018

Italy undefeated

In contrast to England, Italy are undefeated in their two Nations League matches thus far, though both of their fixtures have been at home. 

It has not been a blemish-free international break for Roberto Mancini’s side. They were easily beaten 3-0 by Argentina in the Conmebol-Uefa Cup of Champions on June 1. That match took place on English soil at Wembley. 

Indeed, since winning Euro 2020, there have been few international highlights for the Italians. They were infamously knocked out of the World Cup at the playoff stage at home by North Macedonia, while they have won only four of their last 12 fixtures. 

All yellow? 

England might be coming off the back of a couple of painful matches, but the Three Lions rarely slip up at home. Their last defeat was against Denmark in October 2020. They have won 13 of 17 since then.

Odds of 1.87 to continue that trend appear generous against an out-of-form opponent. It would also end a four-match winless run England have had against Italy, albeit the last three have all ended 1-1. Meanwhile, the Three Lions have only once before gone three matches without a win under Southgate – way back in 2018. 

Looking elsewhere, there is value in bookings. Italy had five players cautioned against Germany in their last match as well as a couple against Hungary, against whom England had three players booked.

Referee Szymon Marciniak averages close to 4.5 cards shown per game over the 2021-22 season, so backing above that figure at odds of 3.4 looks healthy given the scope for this match to become competitive.

Recommended bets

England @ 1.87

Over 4.5 cards @ 3.4