Nations League Sunday Tips: Will Wales win and relegate Poland?

Two groups in League A of the Nations League will reach a conclusion on Sunday – here, Greg Lea reveals how he sees the biggest games playing out.

Austria v Croatia

Kick-off: 7.45pm Sunday

One point from their first two matches left Croatia in a precarious position in Group A1, but they have turned things around magnificently since then. Thursday’s 2-1 triumph over Denmark in Zagreb was their third on the bounce, after previously beating those same opponents and France away from home.

The 2018 World Cup runners-up now head into matchday six knowing that another win will see them qualify for the finals. However, even that might not be necessary: If Denmark lose to France, top spot is Croatia’s by default – although Zlatko Dalic’s side will be fully focused on the task at hand, not goings-on in Copenhagen.

Austria must win this match to avoid relegation to League B, but they are still finding their feet under Ralf Rangnick and will struggle to halt the in-form Croatians.

Selection: Croatia to win @ 2.66

Denmark v France

Kick-off: 7.45pm Sunday

France finally got off the mark in their Nations League campaign on Thursday, beating Austria 2-0 to climb out of the relegation spot. Another win here would guarantee their survival – not exactly their initial objective, but an outcome that became the goal after a miserable start.

More important than their Nations League fate is France’s preparation for the World Cup. The looming competition in Qatar is a consideration for all 13 European teams taking part, of course, but les Bleus’ dismal form in June made it essential that they get back on track this month.

France have a strong incentive to push for a win, then. Denmark do too of course, as they look to overtake Croatia at the last. That is good news for the neutrals, who should be treated to an entertaining encounter.

Selection: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.16

Netherlands v Belgium

Kick-off: 7.45pm Sunday

While this might appear to be a straight shoot-out for top spot in Group A4, Belgium face a daunting task. Three points behind their neighbours going into Sunday’s showdown, they must win by three clear goals to stand a chance of climbing above the Netherlands on the head-to-head record after losing their first meeting 4-1.

The Red Devils are capable of turning on the style in attack, as Poland will attest to after a 6-1 shellacking in Brussels three months ago. Roberto Martinez is a manager who invariably encourages his team to play on the front foot, and an early goal in Amsterdam would give his side a glimmer of hope.

I ultimately cannot see Belgium overturning the deficit, but a high-scoring first 45 minutes is eminently possible.

Selection: Over 1.5 goals first half @ 2.52

Wales v Poland

Kick-off: 7.45pm Sunday

Despite collecting just one point from the first 15 available, all is not lost for Wales just yet. A win on Sunday would see Rob Page’s side climb above Poland and into third place, thus avoiding relegation to League B. In front of a raucous home crowd in Cardiff, Wales will be quietly confident of success.

They will hope that Poland, for whom a draw would be enough, are caught in two minds between attacking and defending. But it is notable that Wales are yet to keep a clean sheet during this campaign, and with Robert Lewandowski in fine form domestically, a defensive shut-out could be beyond them here too.

Selection: Both teams to score @ 1.85

Recommended trades

Austria v Croatia: Croatia to win @ 2.66
Denmark v France: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.16
Netherlands v Belgium: Over 1.5 goals first half @ 2.52
Wales v Poland: Both teams to score @ 1.85