Italy v England Tips: Are the Three Lions going to avoid the drop?

Friday's encounter between England and Italy could decide who is relegated from their Nations League group just over a year after the two sides played out the Euro 2020 final.

It has been a disappointing campaign for both sides. England have just two points from four matches and were twice beaten by Hungary in June, while Italy’s last outing was a 5-2 loss against Germany, in which they restored only a modicum of pride with two goals in the last 12 minutes. 

England are priced as marginal 2.7 favourites but it promises to be a close contest in Milan.

Playing for pride 

For Italy, this is a vital fixture for national pride. Although they won Euro 2020 via a penalty shootout, they face the very real prospect of dropping into the second tier of the Nations League if they lose this game. This of course comes after they already missed out on the World Cup after being stunned by North Macedonia in the play-offs.

Roberto Mancini’s side have previously found the Nations League to their liking - they have lost only three of their previous 16 games in the competition, although they have drawn on seven occasions.

However, the Azzurri know better than most that history counts for little. Since winning the Euros, they have won only three of 11 internationals, which includes a 0-0 stalemate when they last played England at Molineux in June behind closed doors.

Three Lions need confidence 

For England, meanwhile, these Nations League matches promise to be the final dress rehearsal before the World Cup, with no pre-tournament friendlies currently lined up. Gareth Southgate has previously taken the chance to tinker with his side during the other group matches, and may continue to do so.

The manager’s toying has not worked, though. England were embarrassingly defeated 4-0 at home to Hungary in June – a result that marked their worst home defeat since 1928 and means that the Three Lions have gone winless for four successive games for the first time since 2014. 

With confidence and form low ahead of the World Cup, it is vital that England regain some momentum in the upcoming matches against Italy and Germany.

A close game in store

Draws have been the order of the day between these teams in recent meetings. Indeed, all of the last four have ended all square through 90 minutes, which is on offer at 3.25. 

A tight match therefore looks inevitable. There have been ten games since this fixture was decided by a margin of greater than one goal. Despite this phenomenon, five of the last six between these sides have seen both teams score, so look for history to repeat itself with both teams having an incentive to attack.

Meanwhile, this has the potential to be a feisty affair with the hangover from the Euro 2020 final still present. There were five bookings when the countries met in June, and a similarly heated match is not out of the question.

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Back both teams to score @ 2.06