Nations League Monday Tips: Hungary can topple Italy and win their group

With relegation already confirmed for England, Greg Lea previews the best of the action elsewhere in the Nations League on Monday, with plenty still to be decided.

Hungary v Italy

Kick-off: 7.45pm Monday

Hungary’s remarkable Nations League exploits continued on Friday night, as the unlikely Group A3 leaders went to Germany and won 1-0. This can no longer be dismissed as a fluke or a purple patch. Hungary have beaten England home and away, including a stunning 4-0 triumph at Molineux, taken four points off Germany, and only narrowly lost to Italy in Cesena.

That defeat does mean that Hungary have not yet qualified for the finals, and another loss to the Azzurri on Monday would see them leapfrogged at the last. But, while the Italians will arrive in Budapest with renewed confidence after a 1-0 victory over England last time out, Hungary have the spirit, organisation, discipline – and quality – to avoid defeat.

Selection: Hungary or draw @ 1.94

Gibraltar v Georgia

Kick-off: 7.45pm Monday

There is nothing of note left to play for in Group C4. With 13 points from a possible 15, Georgia have already won promotion to League B. Meanwhile, after losing four of their first five matches, Gibraltar will be taking part in the relegation play-offs in March.

The minnows from a country of less than 35,000 people were always likely to struggle against the likes of Georgia, North Macedonia and Bulgaria. Their campaign began with a 4-0 thumping at the hands of their upcoming opponents, and it could end in a similar way.

Georgia are full of confidence right now and they will be determined to celebrate promotion with another convincing win. Gibraltar, who have conceded 16 goals in their group to date, will struggle to stop them.

Selection: Georgia to score in both halves @ 1.95

Montenegro v Finland

Kick-off: 7.45pm Monday

Finland go into matchday six with their fate in their own hands, but a one-point lead over fourth-placed Romania means there is little margin for error. Markku Kanerva’s charges can make sure of their League B status by triumphing over Montenegro, who have nothing to play for after falling four points behind Bosnia-Herzegovina in top spot.

Finland took the lead early on against Romania on Friday but failed to press home their advantage thereafter, with their opponents striking back in the second half to draw 1-1. Given the status of the group, it would only be natural for anxiety to creep into Finland’s play in this match, so we anticipate a cagey first half featuring little goalmouth action.

Selection: Under 0.5 goals first half @ 2.64

Romania v Bosnia-Herzegovina

Kick-off: 7.45pm Monday

Romania had nine more shots than Finland on Friday and were ultimately unlucky not to win the game in Helsinki. Their failure to do so means they head into matchday six needing to get something against the group leaders. A point would be enough if Finland lose to Montenegro, but only a win will do if that match finishes with the scores level.

It remains to be seen how Bosnia will handle the game now the pressure is off. There is a tendency in these situations to assume that they will not be too fussed, but Ivaylo Petev’s men can now play with more freedom. Given Bosnia are the strongest side in the group, the price on an away win looks very generous indeed.

Selection: Bosnia-Herzegovina to win @ 3.3

Recommended trades

Hungary v Italy: Hungary or draw @ 1.94
Gibraltar v Georgia: Georgia score both halves @ 1.95
Montenegro v Finland: Under 0.5 goals first half @ 2.64
Romania v Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina to win @ 3.3