England v Germany Tips: Should you trust the Three Lions to win?

Robin Bairner

26 September 2022

England’s final match of their wretched Nations League campaign will be played against a similarly disheartened Germany at Wembley Stadium on Sunday.

This fixture has been rendered as little more than a friendly after England and Germany suffered surprising 1-0 defeats on Friday against Italy and Hungary respectively. Yet another loss led to ‘A’ league relegation for Gareth Southgate’s side, while Germany have the scant incentive of finishing second, a feat that would require victory here and a favourable result between Italy and Hungary.

Pressure on the Three Lions

Despite having little to play for, there is immense pressure on the Three Lions as they look to end a shocking five-game run without a victory in what could be their last fixture before the 2022 World Cup begins in Qatar in November.

Even at this delicate point in their development, Southgate finds his job on the line as a talented group of players consistently fail to achieve the results and performances expected of them.

They have scored just one goal - a Harry Kane penalty - in their five Nations League fixtures. Only San Marino, who have played two fewer games than Southgate’s troupe, have otherwise failed to score from open play.

Harry Kane: England's only goal in the 2022/23 Nations League came from the Spurs attacker

After reaching the semi-finals in the 2018 World Cup, and then coming within a penalty shootout of winning Euro 2020, there has been an alarming drop-off in form for England and they are now priced at 8.4 to go all the way in Qatar. Against their greatest rivals, they must regain some momentum.

Germany still unfavoured

Germany saw a 13-game undefeated run ended by Hungary in Leipzig. It was a result that had been coming, though, as they had drawn four of their previous five matches.

Die Mannschaft haven’t enjoyed a great spell in head-to-head match-ups against England in recent matches, either. They are winless in their last three games against Southgate’s side, while they have only won one of the last five encounters between the two nations.

It is a measure as to Germany’s current standing that, despite their hosts’ major headaches coming into this match, they are still priced as 3.25 outsiders to get the win.

England may stop the rot

Look for England to salvage some pride in this match and avoid plunging further into crisis. The result line may be close to call, but backing the Three Lions via the ‘Draw no bet’ market at 1.65 appears fair given their strong recent record against Germany and the added motivation to avoid a group whitewash.

I’d also be interested in backing under 2.5 goals at 1.79. England’s scoring issues need no introduction, while four of Germany’s five games in this Nations League campaign have ended with two or fewer goals.