EFL Championship Play-off Betting Tips: Who will book their place at Wembley?

Matthew O'Regan

16 May 2024

Sunday marked a boring day of Championship playoff semi-final first-leg action as both games ended in a stalemate. However, this week’s matches should be more entertaining as all four sides are potentially just one match from Wembley.

Leeds vs Norwich

Date: Thursday 16th May

Kick Off: 20:00

As mentioned, the first leg was a bore draw and arguably one of the most boring games of football to ever be played, with both sides looking lethargic and nervous. Norwich only recorded seven shots, with Leeds having just six shots, with both teams combining for a lowly xG of 0.76.

It made it four games without a win for Norwich who appear to be faltering at the worst time. Leeds aren’t in much better form themselves, winning just once in the last seven.

Leeds are the obvious favourites for this one, they have only tasted defeat twice at Elland Road this season. Norwich also struggle away from home, managing just six wins on the road all season, they ranked 19th in the league for away form.

With a boisterous atmosphere expected from the Yorkshire faithful, Norwich should be penned in early from the start.

At home, Leeds are averaging 6.91 corners per game, hitting the most corners in 23 out of their 25 home games this season. Their attacking talent in Crysencio Summerville, Georginio Rutter and Wilfried Gnonto tend to cause many issues for opposition defenders, drawing plenty of corners. In their last six matches Leeds have had 5,12,13,4,13 and 8 corners.

Norwich on the other hand are conceding 6.17 corners per game away from home. The Canaries have conceded 6,5,10,9 and 7 corners in their last five away games.

With Leeds having a tendency to wobble in big games, Daniel Farke may want to make a statement and score a few early goals, so expect instant pressure from the hosts.

Prediction: Leeds race to seven corners @ 1.93

Southampton vs West Brom

Date: Friday 17th May

Kick Off: 20:00

The second game of Sunday’s Championship action also ended in stalemate as Southampton held West Brom.

While this game had more goalscoring opportunities than the Norwich vs Leeds game, it still did a disservice to the entertainment so often served up by the Championship.

Southampton accumulated 1.00 xG from 12 shots compared to the Baggies who had 14 shots for 0.99 xG. There really was not much to separate the sides at all. However, in the game, there were 16 corners, with both teams looking to exploit set pieces in a tight game.

Despite Taylor Harwood-Bellis going close with a header, West Brom arguably looked the more dangerous side from corners, with Kyle Bartley having four shots. Another noticeable trend was the attacking freedom afforded to West Brom full-backs Conor Townsend and Darnell Furlong.

Russell Martin likes to play the game on the front foot, with wing-backs Kyle Walker-Peters and Ryan Manning crucial to the Saints’ build-up and attacking patterns. However, with this, comes risk in transition. With Okay Yokuslu and Alex Mowatt sitting deep and protecting the defence, Furlong and Townsend found themselves able to attack the penalty area.

Southampton looked vulnerable defending the back post, with Townsend and Furlong both having shots near the goal. Furlong had one shot in the meeting in February, also hitting the post with one of his two shots in the meeting at St Marys in November.

Furlong has had a shot in his last five and nine of his last 11, scoring five goals this season, including in the final-day victory over Preston. He’s averaging 0.91 shots per 90.

In a game where set pieces could be crucial again, Furlong looks a nice price to score.

Prediction: Darnell Furlong to score @ 14.50